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1、Retail Plan&Investment AnalysisNew Times Plaza-Gumei,Shanghai For Fortress Investment GroupShanghai Team Best Retail ConsultantsShanghai Team Best Retail Consultants19August 200819August 20081Team BestCONTENTS1.BACKGROUND-22.PROJECT AND MARKET ANALYSIS-3 2.1Project Location-32.2 Present Competition-2、42.3 SWOT Analysis-63.RETAIL PLAN-93.1Retail Concept-93.2Trade Mix by Floor-103.3Trade Mix Ratio-114.MALL DESIGN-124.1Layout Re-design-134.2Existing Status of Project Faade-184.3Faade Treatment-194.4Exterior Advertising-204.5 Interior Design-235.INVESTMENT ANALYSIS-245.1Mall Rental Rate-245.1.1 Samp3、le Rental from Retailers-245.1.2 Rental Recommendation-255.2Mall Rental Income-265.2.1 Leasable Area-265.2.2 Mall Rental Income-275.3Mall Expenditure-285.3.1 Mall Improvement Works-285.3.2 Mall Operating Expenditures Including Taxes-30 5.3.3 Investment Analysis Summary-315.4 Additional Information f4、or Fortresss Reference-32 6.NEXT STEPS-332Team Best1.BACKGROUNDTeam Best Retail Consultants Ltd.is engaged by Fortress Investment Group(“Fortress”)to provide retail advice in the evaluation and planning of Gumei New Times Plaza(“Project”).Following our site investigation and meetings with Fortress a5、nd Stanley&Partners,we understand the existing trade mix for the Project is predominately a supermarket,with F&B and service retail.The current developer is committed to providing a swimming pool,which is already under construction,and there is government requirement to allocate space for wet market6、 use.We begin by presenting our research and analysis of the Project and its immediate surroundings,followed by recommendations on retail positioning and trade mix.We will provide advice on improving the property from a retail perspective,including re-designing the mall layout to achieve a more effi7、cient and shopper-friendly environment.We will also provide recommendations for mall faade treatment and external advertising.The report concludes with our recommendations for a realistic mall rental rate per floor based on our discussions with target brands,and an estimate of mall rental income and8、 mall expenditure.As our expertise is in the retail context,our proposed concept and investment analysis will be focused on the retail component of the Project only.3Team Best2.PROJECT AND MARKET ANALYSIS2.1 Project LocationNew Times Plaza is located in Shanghais Minghang District,bound by Longming 9、Road to the West,and Pingji Road to the South.The Project has a retail GFA of approximately 36,800m2 1above ground over 5 levels,with 220 car park spaces underground.1.Area calculation based on AutoCAD drawings provided by Stanley&Partners on 30 June 2008Gulong RoadLongming RoadPingji RoadPingji New10、 Village1122Dongyuan Peninsular Garden 33New Times Fujia Garden44New Times Fujia GardenXinjing BayGudai Road4Team Best2.PROJECT AND MARKET ANALYSIS2.2 Present CompetitionGumei is predominantly a residential area and the developments surrounding the Project are mid-end residential with an average sal11、es price of RMB15,000/m2.There are some street-front shops and a food and beverage street within the immediate catchment of the Project,but no shopping malls or department stores within a 1km radius.The closest retail developments to the Project are Brilliance South Shopping Mall and Friendship Mall12、,2km Southeast of the Project.Xujiahui is the closest retail cluster to the Project,approximately 9km Northeast of the Project.Xujiahuiis Shanghais established retail area with six mid to high-end malls and department stores.L1:Rolex,Swarovski,Cerruti 1881,WedgwoodL2:Tommy Hilfiger,Boss Sunwen,Kent&13、CurwenL3:Triumph,Fa:Ge,Elle,Stellaluna,In TouchL4:361,Levis,Adidas Y-3,D Phiten,CrocsL5:D.Phone,Fissler,N.H.,Franz,Artbay,Crown,Book StoreMID-HIGH64,0002008No.7388 Hu Min RoadFriendship Shopping CenterAjisen Ramen,Sport 100MID18,0002005Gu Dai RoadLong Ming RoadThe Ten(F&B Street)No.7388 Hu Min RoadL14、OCATIONL1:Sephora,Starbucks,Chow Tai FookL2:Lacoste,Esprit,Vero Moda,OchirlyL3:Uniqlo,Levis,Et Boite,Nike 360L4:365 Sport City,Kids,Home AccessoryL5:Young Zone,Papa Johns,Toms worldMajor anchor:Youyi Department Store,Carrefour,Yongle.MID100,0001999Brilliance South Shopping MallGFA(m2)POSITIONINGBRAN15、D MIXOPEN PROJECT NAME 5Team BestHuanXi DaDaoGuMei RoadDong LanRoadNan Road DongGuLong RoadPingJiRoadGuDaiRoadPing Yang RoadLongMingRoadWanYuanRoadBrilliance South Shopping MallThe Ten F&B Street2.PROJECT AND MARKET ANALYSIS2.2 Present CompetitionThe Ten F&B StreetBrilliance South Shopping Mall2341916、km1Grand Gateway MallOrient Shopping CenterHui Jin Department Store43Pacific Department StoreXujiahuiCluster21km2kmFriendship Shopping CenterFriendship Shopping Center6Team Best2.3 SWOT ANALYSIS2.3.1 StrengthsConsumer Base:?Gumei Times Plaza is surrounded by residential developments and the existing17、 residents provide a steady consumer base for the Project.The Project will also benefit from the consumer traffic generated by the hotel and residential portion of this development.?The Ten F&B Street,10 minutes walk from the Project,attracts Gumeis residents to the Projects immediate area and helps18、 bring foot traffic to the Project.Infrastructures:?The governments requirement to allocate a wet market in this Project reflects the needs of residents in the area.The Project will be able to cater to these previously unfulfilled needs,and will benefit from the repeat consumer traffic a supermarket19、 brings.?The developer is building a swimming pool on Level 5 and allocates space for gym use on Level 4,as part of the facilities supporting the nearby residential development.This is a good draw for residents and helps make this project a destination.Accessibility to Competitor:?There is no direct20、 bus line accessible to Xujiahui Cluster along Longming Road,which benefits the Project on the other side to attract residents within a 0.5km radius for its convenient accessibility.2.PROJECT AND MARKET ANALYSIS7Team Best2.3.2 WeaknessesProject Size:?With a retail GFA of 36,800m2,this Project is rel21、atively small and can only provide a limited merchandise mix,unlike the one-stop-shopping that suburban malls traditionally offer.There is also limited space available for fashion retail the highest rental yielding trade mix due to the developers commitment to allocate space for a bank,post office,w22、et market and supermarket on Level 1.Hardware:?The Projects original plan was catered for wet market and supermarket usage,unlike a traditional mall where the environment is enclosed and the climate can be controlled to shelter consumers from different weather conditions.?The improvement work is lim23、ited by the Projects original construction plan,such as circulation problem that there is no main walking corridor to connect each unit of the Project,which will influence further leasing work.?The choice of exterior finishing does not reflect the buildings function as a mall.2.PROJECT AND MARKET AN24、ALYSIS8Team Best2.3.3 OpportunitiesRetail Supply:There are no other large-scale retail developments near the Project.This provides the opportunity for this project to be a suburban retail mall serving the residents in the vicinity.Accessibility:Improvements in transport infrastructure serving the ar25、ea,such as the construction of metro line 12,(The nearest metro stop is set at the intersection of Gudai Road and Xinjing Bay,scheduled to open by the end of 20121),will bring additional consumers to the Project area in the future.2.PROJECT AND MARKET ANALYSIS2.3.4 ThreatsCompetitors:It is difficult26、 for the Project to compete with the strong retail atmosphere and comprehensive brand selection available in Xujiahuis mature retail cluster.It will also take time to change the habits of local consumers who are accustomed to shopping at Brilliance South Shopping Mall.1.The information was provided 27、by Stanley&Partners on 15th July.9Team Best3.RETAIL PLAN3.1 Retail ConceptFrom our preliminary SWOT analysis,our recommended retail positioning is a mid-priced point suburban grade mall.The target consumers are the residents from the Projects residential towers and surrounding residential developmen28、ts.We envision this to be a family-oriented,lifestyle mall,with emphasis on fashion retail,F&B and service retail such as spas,salons,fitness and bookstore to complement the residential and hotel portion.Proposal for Retail PositioningHIGHLOWSinoBalenoGiordanoZegnaPortsHang TenA&DOn&OnBrilliance Sou29、th Shopping MallGrand GatewayProjectHuijinDepartment StorePacific Department StoreKent&Curwen361Friendship Shopping Center10Team Best3.2 Trade Mix By FloorL1L2L3L4L5B1Car Park ServiceService,F&BRetail,F&B,ServiceRetail,F&B,Supermarket3.RETAIL PLANRetail,F&B,SupermarketL1L2L3L4L5B1Car Park ServiceF&B30、,Supermarket Office,ServiceRetail,F&B,Supermarket,ServiceRetail,F&B,Supermarket,Wet MarketRetail,F&B,Supermarket,ServiceOriginalTeam Bests Recommendation 11Team Best3.3 Trade Mix Ratio3.RETAIL PLANAFTERRetailF&BServiceRetail47%Supermarket17%F&B20%Service16%RetailF&BServiceSupermarketF&B19%Service21%31、Supermarket37%Wet Market6%Retail17%RetailF&BServiceSupermarketWet MarketOriginal Team Bests Recommendation12Team Best4.MALL DESIGN4.1 Layout Re-designThe governments requirement for 2,000m2 wet market space on Level 1,together with the developers commitment to provide a swimming pool poses restricti32、ons on the ideal trade mix for the Project.The developers current retail plan has little provision for fashion retail,despite the fact that fashion provides greater rental yield compared to other uses such as supermarket,F&B and service retail.As such,fashion retail should ideally occupy prime renta33、l space on Level 1 for maximum yield.Our recommendation is to incorporate the wet market element into the supermarket and to relocate the supermarket away from the main road to create additional leasable area for fashion retail on Levels 1 and 2.Illustrated in the following pages are our proposed la34、yout improvements by floor.In our design,we aim to encourage retail circulation,maximize efficiency and achieve optimal yield for Fortress while complementing the needs of tenants and consumers.Our drawings are based on AutoCAD floorplansprovided to us by Stanley&Partners on 30th June 2008.13Team Be35、st4.MALL DESIGN4.1 Layout Re-designLevel 11.Redesign common corridor and move supermarket to create fashion retail space2.New mall entrance facing Longming Road for fashion retail3.Move supermarket to less prime retail space,and combine wet market with supermarket +4.145m2for coffee shop to make use36、 of alfresco seating area5.Add escalators for circulation ,move travelator,delete unnecessary staircase6.Remix trades for maximum yield for Fortress.RetailF&BSupermarketMain EntranceSupermarketSupermarket11233313446565771126614Team Best4.MALL DESIGN4.1 Layout Re-designLevel 21.Redesign common corrid37、or to create space for Fashion Retail2.Change F&B and service to retail use3.Move travelator,delete unnecessary travelator,delete unnecessary staircase ,add escalators RetailF&BSupermarket114521122222226444555615Team Best4.MALL DESIGN4.1 Layout Re-designLevel 31.Redesign common corridor and demolish38、 wall to increase area for fashion retail2.Move gym to L4 to create larger fashion retail space3.Change F&B to Service4.Add escalator ,delete unnecessary travelatorRetailF&BService14112233334444116Team Best4.MALL DESIGN4.1 Layout Re-designLevel 41.Change supermarket office to gym 2.Add escalator for39、 circulation3.Swimming pool(developer promised residential owners to provide pool-already under construction and cannot be changed)F&BService23111123317Team Best4.MALL DESIGN4.1 Layout Re-designLevel 5Swimming poolService11118Team Best4.MALL DESIGN4.2 Existing Status of Project Faade Below are the p40、roject site pictures shot on 1st July,2008.The materials of the exterior faade are largely stone with black glass,which makes it difficult to identify the retail project as a mall.Illustrated in the following pages are some reference examples for mall faade treatment and external advertising which h41、elp make the project more retail-friendly.19Team Best4.MALL DESIGN4.3 Faade Treatment The choice of material for the exterior facade should reflect the buildings function as a mall.We advise using a balance of materials to make the mall inviting to consumers.An all-glass facade creates a cold effect42、,while an all stone facade may not be immediately identifiable as a mall.Good Examples：Infiniti,ShanghaiVivo City,Singapore20Team Best4.MALL DESIGN4.4 Exterior AdvertisingIt is important to allocate exterior advertising spaces on the malls exterior wall.Exterior advertising helps identify the buildi43、ng as a shopping mall to the public,allows tenants a chance to display their brand image to consumers and is also a source of income for the developer.Grand Gateway,Shanghai21Team Best4.MALL DESIGN4.4 Exterior AdvertisingRaffles City,Shanghai22Team Best4.MALL DESIGN4.4 Exterior AdvertisingDaning Pla44、za,ShanghaiHarujuku,TokyoEaton Centre,Toronto23Team Best4.MALL DESIGN4.5 Interior Design We are familiar with the architect of this project,working with them on an existing project in Pudong.We strongly recommend the investor to hire a specialist retail interior architect to create a successful prod45、uct which is suitable for retail tenants and consumers.We will be pleased to recommend such architect if Fortress requires.24Team Best5.INVESTMENT ANALYSIS5.1 Mall Rental Rate5.1.1 Sample Rental from RetailersFollowing our discussions with some of the target retailers,their indicative base rent is l46、isted as follows:7-10150Log/In7-8150-200Giordano221,500-2,000Wills224,000Hualian/JiadeliSupermarketServiceF&BHard GoodsF&BFashion RetailMERCHANDISE TYPE 6-83-7400-1,000Uccal(Nike,Nike Golf,Kuhle,Fox,Jockey)7-8150-200Only/Vero Moda/Jack Jones3-53-5600-900South Memory5-65-6600-700Herborist5-75-75-710-47、128-10PREDICTED BASE RENT(RMB/m2/day)5-7150-200Starbucks150-180Coffee Bean360Ajisen100-120Lenscrafters80-100Ecco9-11BRANDAVERAGE BASE RENT(RMB/m2/day)AREA REQUIREMENT(m2)L3-L4L1Level25Team Best5.INVESTMENT ANALYSIS5.1.2 Rental RecommendationWe propose the following average(par)base rent by floor:52S48、ervice Retail42Supermarket2Service Retail2F&B2Supermarket4F&B5Fashion Retail26F&B7Fashion Retail1334BASE RENT1(RMB/m2/day)Fashion Retail3F&BService RetailLEVELMERCHANDISE TYPE1.This base rent is partly based on tenants offer,which may fluctuate during lease negotiations.26Team Best5.2 Mall Rental In49、come5.2.1 Leasable AreaThe general efficiency is reduced from 77%to 69%due to conversion of the supermarket area to“shop in shop”format.*All area figures are rounded to the nearest hundred5.INVESTMENT ANALYSIS77%8,50028,30036,800TOTAL100%02,3002,300557%2,7003,6006,300483%1,6007,7009,300384%1,5008,0050、09,500271%2,7006,7009,4001EFFICIENCYCOMMON AREA(m2)LEASABLE AREA(m2)FLOOR AREA(m2)LEVEL69%11,40025,40036,800TOTAL100%02,3002,300554%2,9003,4006,300467%3,1006,2009,300374%2,5007,0009,500269%2,9006,5009,4001EFFICIENCYCOMMON AREA(m2)LEASABLE AREA(m2)FLOOR AREA(m2)LEVELORIGINAL TEAM BESTS RECOMMENDATION51、27Team Best5.INVESTMENT ANALYSIS5.2.2 Mall Rental IncomeBelow is a calculation of the annual rental income from base rent of each floor.Actual total income will be higher,as income from tenants percentage sales(turnover)rent and property management fee have not been reflected in the base rent number52、s.3.835,000,000 Average25,500Total1,700,000 22,300Service5900,000 21,300Service1,500,000 22,100F&B4700,000 3600Service1,900,000 31,700F&B5,800,000 44,000Retail31,600,000 22,200Supermarket1,300,000 4900F&B7,100,000 53,900Retail21,600,000 22,200Supermarket900,000 6400F&B10,000,000 73,900Retail1RENTAL 53、INCOME(RMB/year)BASE RENT(RMB/m2/day)LEASABLE AREA(m2)MERCHANDISELEVEL1.All area figures are rounded to the nearest hundred12.All rental income figures are rounded to the nearest 100,000228Team Best5.INVESTMENT ANALYSIS5.3 Mall Expenditure5.3.1 Mall Improvement Works Below is an estimate of the Mall54、 Improvement Works to fit-out the mall from bare shell condition(as per the developers delivery condition provided to us by Stanley&Partners on 1stJuly 2008)to our recommended positioning suitable for tenant handover.The cost estimate incorporates all our proposed improvements to the mall layout and55、 hardware.The extend of the M&E improvement cost(especially the air-con)can be refined further at a later stage.48TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COSTSAllowance for 6 Nos new escalators,shifting of 2 Nos travelators and removal of 4 Nostravelators and 2 Nos dumbwaiters,provision of water pipe connection,HVAC sys56、tem to common area only,F&B provision,additional sprinklers and smoke detectors to affected area,reinstallation of wiring to affected areas.21M&E SERVICESAllowance for glass shopfront and glass door.11TENANTED UNITSAllowance for removal of slab and partition wall;New slab and minor structural adapta57、tion;Making good affected area.2DEMOLITON&STRUCTURAL WORKSAllowance for advertisement light boxes,external signages.1FAADE IMPROVEMENTAllowance for sanitary wares&fittings;Vanity counter;Mirrors and toilet partitions.1TOILETHomogeneous floor and wall tiles and lift portal frames;Alum ceiling;Light f58、ittings;Signages and litter bins;Information counter to Main Lobby.12LOBBY&CORRIDOR FITTING OUTBRIEF SPECIFICATIONSTOTAL ESTIMATE(Million RMB)ITEM29Team Best5.INVESTMENT ANALYSIS5.3.1 Mall Improvement Works Preliminary Budget Estimate Exclusion List:1.Professional fees including site supervision fee59、s,tender agent fees;2.Legal costs;3.Financing charges;4.Administration Fees to Government authorities for renovation works;5.Government and utility company fees and charges for alteration works;6.Upgrading(if applicable)of utility services and connection;7.Major structural alteration works arising f60、rom design changes;8.Any other tax,duties and fees charged by the local authority related to the development;9.Advertising,marketing costs and expenses;10.Contingencies;11.Any other costs and items not specifically mentioned in the estimate.30Team Best2.The detailed tax calculation a)Sales Tax:5%of 61、Gross Income;b)Sales Tax Affixation:11%of Sales Tax(applicable to local companies),1%(applicable to foreign companies);c)Stamp Duty Tax:0.1%of Gross Rent of the Agreement;d)Real Estate Tax:Propertys Initial Value 80%1.2%e)Income Tax:(Gross Income all expense reduced by tax law)25%This figure can be 62、controlled within 10%when the mall is at a stable stage.5.INVESTMENT ANALYSIS5.3.2 Mall Operating Expenditures Including TaxesMall operating expenditures including taxes per year comprises two parts:Operating Expenditures+Relevant TaxesOperating ExpendituresOperating Expenditures1 account for 5%of M63、all Annual Rental Income.It mainly covers Salaries,Advertising&Promotion and Office Supplies Cost.Relevant TaxesRelevant Taxes comprise Sales Tax,Sales Tax Affixation,Stamp Duty Tax,Real Estate Tax and Income Tax2,accounting for 17%of Mall Annual Rental Income.Mall operating expenditures including t64、axes per year accounts for an estimated 22%(5%+17%)of Mall Annual Rental Income.Following the Total Annual Rental Income under section 5.2.2,Mall Operating Expenditures(Including Taxes)is approximately 7.7 million RMB(22%x 35,000,000RMB3)per year.13.See section 5.2.2 on page 27.3Operating Expenditur65、es exclude Property Management Cost or Common Area Maintenance which is offset by Property Management Fee collected from tenants.31Team Best5.INVESTMENT ANALYSIS5.3.3 Investment Analysis Summary*Above figures are all rounded to the nearest million.7.7millionMall Operation Expenditures Including Taxe66、s(RMB/year)48 million Mall Improvement Works/1-time(RMB)35 million Mall Rental Income(RMB/year)32Team Best5.INVESTMENT ANALYSIS5.4 Additional Information for Fortresss Reference Following our meeting on 5th Aug 2008,we have included our responses to Fortresss inquiries raised during the discussion:167、.Percentage Sales Rent.18%-22%is acceptable for most fashion retail brands.In the longerterm when the mall is well-managed,the returns from percentage sales rent can exceed base rent figures.2.Rental Growth Rate.Rental growth rate is usually fixed based on CPI.A 10%growth rate for the annual base re68、nt escalation is usually accepted by market practice,but not applicable for percentage sales rent.3.Property Management Fee(Common Area Maintenance Fee).The developer can invite property management companies to submit a quote.Get an average of the quotes.We recommend cleaning to be outsourced,securi69、ty and maintenance to be directly managed by Fortress.The budget for Property management fee is pegged at 70%occupancy and the excess collected(when the project is leased beyond 70%)can be kept in reserve for the purpose of future improvement works.4.Duration of Leasing Phase.Leasing out this projec70、t will take approximately one year,from commencement of mall fitting-out to mall soft opening.33Team Best6.NEXT STEPSShould Fortress proceed to acquire the property,Team Best can assist you further with our turn-key retail solutions.Our service includes detailed merchandise planning,recommendations 71、on hardware alterations,leasing and mall management to ensure a sustainable growth path for New Times Plaza.Our Scope of Services:Phase A:Retail Planning Accurate mall positioning and retail conceptComplementary merchandise mixPhase B:Project Development Design a shopping environment that maximizes 72、retail efficiencyEnsure internal design complements mall positioningPhase C:Leasing and Pre-openingEstablish an efficient and cost-effective leasing teamAchieve leasing plan due to our network of local and international brand namesAchieve high occupancy upon mall opening Establish an advertising and promotion strategy Phase D:Mall Management and Adjustment Provide continued leasing advice to achieve maximum occupancyAdjust tenant mix to achieve a higher yieldEnable an effective mall management team to achieve sustainable growth for the mall