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1、計劃投入產(chǎn)出分析投資預算的依據(jù)和若干說明一、投資預算依據(jù)1、建筑材料依據(jù)廠家報價和市場詢價；2、建筑工程采用國家有關定額及取費標準；3、國家有關建設項目投資估算的規(guī)定；4、項目法人提供的部分基礎資料；二、項目投資預算的若干說明1、項目所需建設資金90%由股東自籌，10%通過銀行貸款解決；2、本項目的工程建設投資估算中，不包括各類用房的二次裝修費用；投資預算內(nèi)容工程建設投資估算內(nèi)容1、建筑安裝投資包括土建工程、設備安裝工程和總體工程。土建工程包括基礎及維護、地上建筑、地下停車庫、室內(nèi)裝修工程。設備安裝工程包括給排水、暖通工程、電氣、電梯、防雷、弱電等。總體工程包括室外管線及污水處理、道路、綠化等2、。建筑安裝投資估算單價（元/）：2,300每畝面積()建筑畝數(shù)(畝)建筑面積（）：865,800666200建筑投資合計額（元）：1,991,340,0002、土地費用及交易契稅土地費用及交易契稅單價（元/）：6,156每畝價格(元/畝)建筑面積（）：216,4504,100,000土地費用及交易契稅（元）：1,332,500,0003、配套費用項目占建安費比例（）費用額（元）監(jiān)理費用1.10%21,904,740審圖費用0.06%1,194,804招標費0.04%796,536質(zhì)量監(jiān)督費0.10%1,991,340辦證及其它0.20%3,982,680配套費用合計29,870,100占比（）3、費用額（元）不可預見費用0.06%1,212,726項目管理費0建設期貸款的年利率建設期貸款的年利支出額建設期貸款的年利率7.00%13,939,380流動資金貸款的年利率0.00%投資概算表序號工程或費用名稱估算價值序號工程或費用名稱估算價值壹建筑安裝工程投資1,991,340,000叁配套費用29,870,1001土建工程298,701,000肆不可預見費用1,212,7262設備安裝179,220,600伍項目管理費用03總體工程119,480,400建設投資合計1,960,984,826小計597,402,000陸建設期間貸款利息13,726,894貳土地費用1,332,500,0004、總投資1,974,711,720建設資金占用與資金籌措項目建設期為3年，第一年(2006年)用款約20%,第二年用款約50%,第三年用款約30%。資金平衡表序號項目合計建設期建設期建設期第一年第二年第三年一用款計劃20%50%30%1建設投資1,960,984,826392,196,965980,492,413588,295,4482建設期利息13,726,8942,745,3796,863,4474,118,0683用款合計1,974,711,720394,942,344987,355,860592,413,516二資金來源1自由資金1,777,240,548355,448,110888,65、20,274533,172,1642銀行貸款197,471,17239,494,23498,735,58659,241,3523資金來源合計1,974,711,720394,942,344987,355,860592,413,516項項目目收收入入測測算算項目運營可以有多種方式，不同方式有不同的投入產(chǎn)出測算效果，本報告取運作方式一進行測算，即短期出售30%商鋪產(chǎn)權，自營出租70%的商鋪。銷售預測一、預測原則1、根據(jù)國家現(xiàn)行財稅制度和價格體系進行分析2、本項目建成后，商鋪和配套商業(yè)將出租，部分商鋪將出售。3、項目的測算期為15年，其中建設期為3年，經(jīng)營期為12年二、項目經(jīng)營收入1、出租收入(出租6、率80%)出租率和租金采取保守估計，假定經(jīng)營第一年，租金平均每天2.0元/平方米，經(jīng)營期第一年出租率按80%計，第二年按85%計，第三年為正常年份，出租率按90%計。每年以365天計，正常情況下，預計經(jīng)營期內(nèi)每三年租金上漲9%。年份建設2011建設2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024租金2.002.062.122.192.252.322.392.462.532.612.692.77項目出租收入該項目建筑面積865800平方米，其中商業(yè)部分440000平方米，住宅部分4265800平方米。其中商業(yè)120000平米用于出租，第一年7、出租率80%,第二年85%,第三年90%,此后12年的租金如下表年份建設2011建設2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024面積600006000060000150000150000150000150000150000150000150000150000150000出租率80.00%85.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%租金1,209,223,89635,040,000.0038,346,900.0041,820,678.00107,688、8,245.85110,918,893.23114,246,460.02117,673,853.82121,204,069.44124,840,191.52128,585,397.27132,442,959.18136,416,247.962、住宅出售收入(賣掉80%)住宅出售價格預測和計劃項目所有出售房產(chǎn)按住宅：5300元/價格出售，在建設期第一年即開始預售，至建設期第三年結束，售期3年，出售比例為：30%50%20%。年份建設2011建設20122013售價元/530053005300銷售面積649350649350649350銷售比率(%)30.00%50.00%20.00%銷售收入(元9、)3,441,555,0001,032,466,5001,720,777,500688,311,0003、商鋪出售收入(賣掉50%)商鋪出售價格預測和計劃項目所有出售房產(chǎn)按商鋪：20000元/價格出售，在建設期第一年即開始預售，至經(jīng)營期第一年結束，售期3年，出售比例為：20%20%10%。年份建設2011建設20122013售價元/200002000020000銷售面積500005000050000銷售比率(%)20.00%20.00%10.00%銷售收入(元)400,000,000160,000,000160,000,00080,000,0004、廣告收入廣告收入定為租賃收入的10%，12年10、的廣告收入總額為：62191587元年份建設2011建設2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024廣告收入比率%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%廣告收入(元)120,922,3903,504,0003,834,6904,182,06810,768,82511,091,88911,424,64611,767,38512,120,40712,484,01912,858,54013,244,29613,641,6255、管理費收11、入所有出售出租面積按平均5元/月/平方米計，合計23004000元。年份建設2011建設2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024管理費(元/月/)555555555555管理費收入(元)82,080,0002,880,0003,060,0003,240,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,000項目經(jīng)營收入總計5,253,781,286項項目目成成本本費費用用預預測測1、房產(chǎn)的銷售費用出租房產(chǎn)的銷售費用(含12、招商費、廣告費等)按經(jīng)營期第1年出租房產(chǎn)收入的3%計，以后每年遞增5%至第5年，其后穩(wěn)定在第5年基礎上年份建設2011建設2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024占比%3%出租房產(chǎn)的銷售費用14,752,7251,051,2001,103,7601,158,9481,216,8951,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,740出售房產(chǎn)的銷售費用出售房產(chǎn)的銷售費用按當年銷售房產(chǎn)收入的3%計年份建設2011建設20122013占比%3%313、%3%出售房產(chǎn)的銷售費用115,246,65035,773,99556,423,32523,049,330所以總的銷售費用如下年份建設2011建設2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024房產(chǎn)的銷售費用37,802,05535,773,99556,423,32524,100,5301,103,7601,158,9481,216,8951,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7402、管理費用管理人員的工資及福利預計項目經(jīng)營工作人員50名14、，人均年工資費用暫定2.5萬元(含各項福利費用)，合計經(jīng)營期第一年為1250000元人均25,000人員50管理人員的工資及福利15,000,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,000攤銷與折舊固定資產(chǎn)折舊年限為20年，殘值為5%。年限20年折舊額340,519,14028,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,3715、6,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,595土地及動拆遷費用攤銷年限為50年。年限50年攤銷額319,800,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,000維修費維修費按折舊費的15%計算占比15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%維修費51,07716、,8714,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,489房產(chǎn)稅房產(chǎn)稅按房屋租金收入的12%計。年份建設2011建設2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024租金收入35,040,00038,346,90041,820,678107,688,246110,918,893114,246,460117,673,854121,204,069124,840,192128,58517、,397132,442,959136,416,248占比12.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%房產(chǎn)稅145,106,8684,204,8004,601,6285,018,48112,922,59013,310,26713,709,57514,120,86214,544,48814,980,82315,430,24815,893,15516,369,950管理費用總計871,503,8793、財務費用財務費用在本測算中僅考慮貸款利息。總成本為銷售費用、管理費用、財務費用之和。經(jīng)營成本為總成本18、減去折舊費、攤銷費和財務費用。占比50.00%20.00%15.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%財務費用13,726,8946,863,4472,745,3792,059,034686,345274,538274,538137,269137,269137,269137,269137,269137,269項目成本費用總計923,032,827綜綜合合財財務務分分析析一、利潤預測1、營業(yè)稅金和附加為5.55%。2、所得稅率為15%3、二項基金比例為稅后利潤15%4、利潤預測詳見附表3“利潤預測表”二、現(xiàn)金流量分析非貼現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流量指標經(jīng)測19、算不考慮資金的時間價值，靜態(tài)投資回收期為年（不含建設期），如果包括建設期，靜態(tài)投資回收期為年年度每年凈現(xiàn)金流量年末尚未回收的投資額第1年第2年第3年第4年第5年第6年第7年第8年第9年第10年第11年第12年平均報酬率ARR約為貼現(xiàn)的現(xiàn)金流量指標1、在考慮資金時間價值的條件下，I=8%的財務凈現(xiàn)值NPV為元，未來12年現(xiàn)金流入的凈現(xiàn)值為正。經(jīng)測算，考慮資金的時間價值，投資回收期為年。(不含建設期)2、內(nèi)部報酬率IRR約為%3、獲利指數(shù)PI約為。（獲利指數(shù)為未來報酬的總現(xiàn)值與初始投資額的比值）見附表現(xiàn)金流量預測表項項目目經(jīng)經(jīng)濟濟分分析析的的綜綜合合評評價價通過對前12年經(jīng)營過程中的各項經(jīng)濟指標的20、測算后，公司的主要經(jīng)濟指標匯集如下：1、忽略次要因素，經(jīng)營前12年的利潤總額為元，稅后凈利潤為元，可分配利潤元。2、項目靜態(tài)投資回收期PP為年。3、平均報酬率ARR為%。4、考慮貼現(xiàn)因素，投資回收期為年。5、內(nèi)部報酬率IRR為%。6、獲利指數(shù)PI為。財務分析表經(jīng)營收入預測表序號項目合計建設2011建設20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320241出租收入1,209,223,8960035,040,00038,346,90041,820,678107,688,246110,918,893114,246,460117,673,85412121、,204,069124,840,192128,585,397132,442,959136,416,2482出售收入3,841,555,0001,192,466,5001,880,777,500768,311,000000000000003廣告收入120,922,390003,504,0003,834,6904,182,06810,768,82511,091,88911,424,64611,767,38512,120,40712,484,01912,858,54013,244,29613,641,6254管理費收入82,080,000002,880,0003,060,0003,240,0008,22、100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0008,100,0005車位收入0小計5,253,781,2861,192,466,5001,880,777,500809,735,00045,241,59049,242,746126,557,070130,110,783133,771,106137,541,239141,424,476145,424,211149,543,937153,787,255158,157,873總成本費用測算表序號項目合計建設2011建設201220132014201520162023、1720182019202020212022202320241銷售費用129,999,37535,773,99556,423,32524,100,5301,103,7601,158,9481,216,8951,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7401,277,7402管理費用871,503,8790064,737,88465,134,71265,551,56673,455,67473,843,35174,242,65974,653,94775,077,57375,513,90775,963,33276,426,24、23976,903,0342.1人員工資和福利15,000,000001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0001,250,0002.2折舊費340,519,1400028,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,59528,376,5952.3攤銷費319,800,000025、026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,00026,650,0002.4維修費51,077,871004,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4894,256,4892.5房產(chǎn)稅145,106,868004,204,8004,601,6285,018,48112,922,26、59013,310,26713,709,57514,120,86214,544,48814,980,82315,430,24815,893,15516,369,9503財務費用13,726,894006,863,4472,745,3792,059,034686,345274,538274,538137,269137,269137,269137,269137,269137,2694出售房產(chǎn)建設投資1,960,984,826392,196,965980,492,413588,295,448000000000005總成本小計2,976,214,973427,970,9601,036,915,738627、83,997,30968,983,85168,769,54875,358,91475,395,62975,794,93776,068,95676,492,58276,928,91677,378,34177,841,24878,318,043其中：經(jīng)營成本837,282,241622,107,26711,211,87711,683,91919,645,97420,094,49720,493,80520,905,09221,328,71821,765,05222,214,47722,677,38523,154,179利潤表序號項目合計建設2011建設20122013201420152016201728、20182019202020212022202320241經(jīng)營收入5,253,781,2861,192,466,5001,880,777,500809,735,00045,241,59049,242,746126,557,070130,110,783133,771,106137,541,239141,424,476145,424,211149,543,937153,787,255158,157,8732總成本費用2,976,214,973427,970,9601,036,915,738683,997,30968,983,85168,769,54875,358,91475,395,62975,729、94,93776,068,95676,492,58276,928,91677,378,34177,841,24878,318,0433經(jīng)營稅金及附加121,019,8190044,940,2932,510,9082,732,9727,023,9177,221,1487,424,2967,633,5397,849,0588,071,0448,299,6898,535,1938,777,7624利潤總額2,156,546,493764,495,540843,861,76280,797,399-26,253,169-22,259,77444,174,23947,494,00550,551,8725330、,838,74557,082,83660,424,25163,865,90767,410,81471,062,0685所得稅323,481,974114,674,331126,579,26412,119,610-3,937,975-3,338,9666,626,1367,124,1017,582,7818,075,8128,562,4259,063,6389,579,88610,111,62210,659,3106稅后利潤1,833,064,519649,821,209717,282,49868,677,789-22,315,194-18,920,80837,548,10340,369,90431、42,969,09145,762,93348,520,41151,360,61354,286,02157,299,19260,402,7587二項基金274,959,67897,473,181107,592,37510,301,668-3,347,279-2,838,1215,632,2156,055,4866,445,3646,864,4407,278,0627,704,0928,142,9038,594,8799,060,4148可分配利潤1,558,104,841552,348,027609,690,12358,376,120-18,967,915-16,082,68731,915,8832、834,314,41836,523,72838,898,49341,242,34943,656,52146,143,11848,704,31351,342,344現(xiàn)金流量表序號項目合計建設2011建設20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320241現(xiàn)金流入01.1經(jīng)營收入5,253,781,2861,192,466,5001,880,777,500809,735,00045,241,59049,242,746126,557,070130,110,783133,771,106137,541,239141,424,476145,424,2133、1149,543,937153,787,255158,157,8731.2回收固定資產(chǎn)余值01.3回收流動資金0小計5,253,781,2861,192,466,5001,880,777,500809,735,00045,241,59049,242,746126,557,070130,110,783133,771,106137,541,239141,424,476145,424,211149,543,937153,787,255158,157,8732現(xiàn)金流出02.1建設投資1,960,984,826392,196,965980,492,413588,295,4482.2流動資金02.3經(jīng)營成34、本02.4經(jīng)營稅金及附加121,019,81944,940,2932,510,9082,732,9727,023,9177,221,1487,424,2967,633,5397,849,0588,071,0448,299,6898,535,1938,777,7622.5所得稅82,228,37912,119,610-3,937,975-3,338,9666,626,1367,124,1017,582,7818,075,8128,562,4259,063,6389,579,88610,111,62210,659,310小計2,164,233,024392,196,965980,492,4136435、5,355,350-1,427,067-605,99413,650,05314,345,24915,007,07715,709,35016,411,48417,134,68117,879,57518,646,81519,437,0723凈現(xiàn)金流量表3,089,548,262800,269,535900,285,087164,379,65046,668,65749,848,740112,907,017115,765,533118,764,029121,831,889125,012,993128,289,529131,664,362135,140,440138,720,8014累計現(xiàn)金流量800,36、269,5351,700,554,6221,864,934,2721,911,602,9291,961,451,6682,074,358,6852,190,124,2192,308,888,2482,430,720,1362,555,733,1292,684,022,6582,815,687,0212,950,827,4613,089,548,2625凈現(xiàn)值(I=8%)736,247,972828,262,280151,229,27842,935,16545,860,840103,874,456106,504,291109,262,907112,085,338115,011,953118,026,367121,131,213124,329,205127,623,1376累計凈現(xiàn)值736,247,9721,564,510,2521,715,739,5301,758,674,6941,804,535,5351,908,409,9912,014,914,2812,124,177,1882,236,262,5262,351,274,4792,469,300,8462,590,432,0592,714,761,2642,842,384,401