1、Digital Auto Report 2021Accelerating towards the“new normal”VOLUME 1Strategy&|PwCDigital Auto Report 2021 Volume 1Tenth annual Digital Auto Report,developed by Strategy&and PwCGlobal consumer survey with a focus on the US,EU and China(n=3,000)plus new view on Japan(n=1,000)Quantitative market outloo

2、k up to 2035,based on regional structural analysisInterviews with industry executives at OEMs and suppliers,and with leading academics and industry analysts2Volume 2Capturing value with new mobility business modelsVolume 1Assessing global mobility market dynamicsVolume 3Building software-defined veh

3、icles and servicesMarket outlook penetration of technologies and mobility typesCustomers changing mobility preferences:everything-as-a-service?Technology shifting gears in connected,electric,automatedRegulation slowdown or acceleration of key policies?What to offer and how much to gain?How to build

4、up required capabilities?The mobility ecosystem is entering a fragmented future,with different adoption patterns and use cases by region Executive summary Volume 1In the“new normal”world,two themes are having a major impact on auto executives strategy with regard to connected,electric,automated and

5、smart mobility 1)rising market attention on decarbonization/sustainability and 2)competitive pressure from maturing digital disruptors/“new kids on the block”.97%of Chinese consumers want to change their mobility behavior to improve their CO2 footprint vs.70%in Germany and 52%in the U.S.Switching to

6、 an electric vehicle is the preferred measure for achieving this goal in China and in the US,while Germans would like to do more walking/cycling.In light of the ongoing pandemic,demand for public transport and shared mobility remains low about half of the survey respondents(n=4,000)say they use thos

7、e modes less often than pre-COVID;30%of Germans/Americans now want to use their own vehicle more(59%in China).Total vehicle parc projections up to 2035 see a stagnation in Europe(-0,6%p.a.)and Japan(-0,9%p.a.)vs.marginal growth in the US(+1.3%p.a.)and stronger growth in China(+3.9%p.a.);driven by 1)

8、growing mobility demand,2)customer preferences for own car and 3)vehicle disposal rate.Vehicle connectivity is advancing,with 50%of total parc connected in Europe by 2025(US by 2023,China by 2029).While OEMs are reaching a critical size with their connected service customer base,they still struggle

9、with reliable service delivery at scale(over-the-air update functionality).E-mobility is at an inflection point in Europe,driven by a strong government drive(incentives and regulations),with 27%BEV share of new car sales in 2025 ahead of China(19%),US(6%)and Japan(5%).Slow charging infrastructure bu

10、ild-up will soon become the biggest growth hurdle.Automated driving outlook is similar to previous year:in passenger transport,the technology will penetrate the market with a range of specific use cases that are difficult to scale L4 share of new cars at 14-15%by 2035 in Europe/China/Japan;industria

11、l/logistics applications likely to grow faster.Despite consumer reluctance to share vehicles or rides during the pandemic,smart mobility modes beyond vehicle ownership are expected to grow in the long term.With rising number of car-subscription offerings,shared-active(e.g.rental,subscription)is expe

12、cted to grow strongest in Europe(10%of total person kilometers by 2025),while shared-passive(e.g.ride-hailing)is expected to grow significantly more in China(10%vs.1-3%in US and Europe).Conclusion:differentiated view on CASE strategy and investment priorities is crucial for maintaining“l(fā)icense to op

13、erate”and creating value in automotive.(covered in upcoming report volumes 2 and 3)Strategy&Note:Please refer to respective section for detailed assumptions and sources behind stated propositions 3CASE themes continue to drive the automotive transformation Electric currently has greatest impact”Stra

14、tegy&ConnectedElectricAutomatedSmart Mobility*4*Smart Mobility describes a transportation ecosystem where stakeholders use data and connectivity to move people and goods sustainably and efficiently.Shared mobility remains as a sub-segment and an important value pool in this ecosystem focusing on peo

15、ple transport with passenger vehicles.Source:Strategy&Source:Strategy&5As the mobility ecosystem adjusts to the new normal,many auto players will need to reboot their CASE strategiesPreference for private modes has paused smart mobility growth,but cities encouraged to run new transport trialsPublic

16、incentives and growing model choice has boosted EV demand tipping point is near;infra-structure next bottleneckWith increasing digital service portfolio and functions-on-demand now available,car OS top priority for new modelsConsolidation of ADAS players;OEMs review their partners;L4 people movers a

17、nd robotaxis in trial mode everywhereConnectedAutomatedSmart mobilityElectricFlex-work is here to stay,pushing demand for remote tech;chip shortage unlikely to be resolved before Q4-21Consumer spend reaching pre-COVID levels;preference for own(EV)car vs.public transport remains highEU/US decarboniza

18、tion measures accelerate;rising attention on(open)data,privacy and cybersecurityAs auto toplines recover,CEO attention is shifting from liquity towards sustainable growth investmentsTechnologyConsumerRegulationEconomicsStrategy&Sustainability has become a major driver for change in auto2021 Highligh

19、t I:SustainabilityStrategy&1)Environment,Social and Governance 2)Morningstar European sustainable fund flows Q1 2021Source:PwC and Strategy&analysis6 More holistic view on ESG forces players to re-evaluate measures from drivetrain to cyber/data Connected:Emission reductions via predictive driving/an

20、alytics,but pressure on sustainable high-tech production Autonomous:Emission efficiency via optimized driving,but growing energy consumption for data compute Smart:Environmental benefits from multi-mode mobility,butoverall higher mobility demand as urban populations gain wealth Electric:Zero emissio

21、n vehicles,but need for sustainable battery production and recyclingCASE implicationsSustainability transformation driversPublic perceptionCustomers demand genuine ESG1)actions Employer brand to meet ESG talent expectations Higher transparency on social responsibility along supply chain,e.g.for batt

22、ery materialsNet zero CO2pathwayPortfolio shift towards sustainable vehiclesInvest balance of“old”(e.g.EURO7)vs.“new”tech(e.g.cell production)Decarbonization of full product lifecycle including supply chainCapital marketsBooming demand for ESG investment classesGrowing relevance of topESG rating pos

23、itions Maturing ESG investor reporting and changing OEM equity storyRegulationEU taxonomy and ESG reporting standardsCompliance system tofulfill new regulation,e.g.on cybersecurityRecalibration of KPI systems to ESG topics,e.g.for executive pay86%120bn Nr.1 of employees prefer to work for firms that

24、 care about the same issues they do73%of customers want to change their mobility behavior to lower CO2 emissionsbarrier to ESG effectiveness is the lack of reporting standards41%Zero Emission Vehicle sales required for CO2compliance in 2030All-time high inflows in Q1/21 for EU sustainable funds2)(pl

25、us 18%vs.Q1/20)of best-performing funds in EU were related to ESG in Q1 2021 6/10EU Green Deal funding,of which sustainable mobility is a central pillar1Treduction in passenger car emissions by 2030(EU Green Deal)55%Build and run infrastructureSupply componentsDesign and build vehiclesRetail vehicle

26、sFinance vehiclesOperate fleetsRetail mobility and servicesNew entrants redefine the rules of the automotive value game2021 Highlight II:New kids on the blockStrategy&1)UBS Research EV operating profits2)IHS Markit 3)CMBI NEV Sales April 2021 4)Company Websites 5)SPAC figures display cash made avail

27、able trough SPAC;not post-SPAC valuation7Revenue generation along entire value chain and especially from software(from charging infrastructure to mobility services)Instead of selling one-time vehicles or services,new entrants sell recurring mobility services and subscription based productsSoftware-d

28、efined vehicles replace the traditional monolithic OEM lifecycleChassis and body change less frequent while software is updated much more quicklyLean portfolio with various software upgrade possibilitiesFewer chassis,body and interior selection possibilities(package-based)Value chain coverageRecurri

29、ng salesEfficient productionLean portfolio2143Ease of capital raise(e.g.through SPACs)5Selected key facts5$99bn Raised via automotive SPAC in 20205)44 vs.20Average model variants in EU bynew entrants vs.traditional OEMs4)32024Year in which BEV will achieve production cost parity with ICE3)2$199Tesla

30、s monthly subscription price for full self-driving capability2)145%Overall profit expected to be generated from software in 20251)Traditional OEMsNew Kids(charging,vehicle,service)TechnologyConsumerRegulationEconomics Connected service content and UX Vehicle system/EE architecture Network infrastruc

31、ture “Digitally savvy”share of population“Freemium”segment services Scope and timing of enforced connectivity requirements Scope of data sharing and privacy restrictions Indirect value capture by OEM Effective end consumer pricing Battery and powertrain performance EV manufacturability and productio

32、n capacity Charging infrastructure Premium/early adopter segment size“Rational green”segment size Emission target levels BEV/PHEV incentives Diesel/ICE bans/restrictions in cities Superior total cost of ownership(TCO)of BEV vs.ICE in relevant number of segments Additional revenues/savings from V2G/V

33、2X charging ADAS capabilityby use case Data processing Driver UI Network and traffic infrastructure Premium/early adopter segment size Technology openness Scope and timing of enforced ADAS safety features Geographic range and quantity of AV test drive/vehicle approvals Superior TCO vs.non-AV in firs

34、t commercial cases Additional value capture from riders Smartphone penetration Access and fleet availability Intermodal openness People/traffic density“Frequent user”segment size Private car restrictions/taxes Passenger transport regulation Superior TCO vs.own vehicle Dynamic pricing for opt.use and

35、 availabilityAcceleration of technology penetration will occur at varying times and speeds globally,as local mobility is transformedKey considerations for anticipating tipping point of exponential technology adoptionStrategy&ADAS=Advanced Driver Assistance Systems;EE=Electric/electronics,V2G=Vehicle

36、 to grid,TCO=Total cost of ownership Note:A tipping point is defined as the start of exponential growth within a segment of the mobility transformation Source:Expert interviews,PwC AutoFacts,Strategy&AutomatedElectricConnectedExpected tipping pointsSmart Mobility8earlier2030laterearlier2030laterearl

37、ier2030laterearlier2030laterAcceleration vs.2020Slow down vs.2020Total car parc growth strongest in China;electric forecast up from last years prediction;automation notable only after 2025Total vehicle parc and technology penetration of new car sales(in million,%)Strategy&927228931033217171718206250

38、30235024283134100%100%44%88%3%6%12%16%20352030202120250%1%11%34%20212025203020356%19%33%55%100%100%100%100%2%6%19%44%(eCall,%new LV sales)Connected(BEV,%new LV sales)Electric(L3/L4/L5,%new LV sales)Automated31730829428115171717Total LV parc(million)New LV sales(million)0%4%20%29%20352025202120309%27

39、%50%78%100%100%100%100%Source:PwC AutoFacts,Strategy&LV=Light Vehicles=Cars+Light Commercial Vehicles 20%expected only after 2030New vehicle sales by SAE level(in million,%)20252021100%13%4%1796%78%7%2030171768%14%14%1%203515L0-2L3L4L51%97%202194%11%88%5%2025203084%14%2%20351317171820211%100%89%1%99

40、%3%20258%20303166%2418%15%20352834Source:PwC Autofacts,Strategy&SAE=Society of Automotive EngineersADAS players will strive in the coming years for selected,feasible automated driving applications in transport/fleets and logistics/industrial areas to recover investments Germany first to pass nationa

41、l law for automated vehicle use.100%96%9%20214%6%202585%20304203571%12%15%1%554Strategy&13Preference towards shared mobility still varies across the major markets;EU/Japan expected to lead by 2035Market penetration by mobility mode(in 000 trillion person-kilometer,%)92%87%79%72%2%3%7%10%16%21%20356%

42、203020215.420255%4.95.15.397%97%97%97%1%1%1%1%2%2%2%2021202520302%20355.86.16.46.789%88%87%86%9%10%11%12%2%2%2%2%202513.82035202120308.810.412.2Private active/passivee.g.own vehicleShared active e.g.car sharing,rental Shared passive e.g.ride hailing,(robo-)taxiSource:PwC Autofacts,Strategy&Despite d

43、emand shock for shared mobility due to COVID-19 in 2020/21,long-term outlook remains positive driven by a growing number of sharing options on multi-mode transport platforms and increasing regulatory pressure for private car ownership,in particular in European and Japanese cities.97%94%86%75%1%2%7%1

44、1%7%14%3%2%20212030202520350.90.90.90.9This report series is laid out in three volumes 1)CASE drivers,2)economic opportunities,and 3)capability implicationsStrategy&ConsumerTechnologyRegulationEconomicsOpportunity sizing and investmentsAutomatedElectricConnectedSmart MobilityCapabilitiesBuild-up and

45、 partneringVolume 1Volume 2Volume 314Assessing global mobility market dynamics1Strategy&|PwC15VolumeImage to be updatedConsumers are seeking convenient and safe mobility private transport modes remain important in 2021”Strategy&16Source:Strategy&ConsumerTechnologyRegulationAutomatedElectricConnected

46、Smart MobilityDigital Auto Report 2021 Volume 1Latest consumer attitudes within CASE are reflected in a survey of 3,000 respondents in Germany,US and ChinaOverview consumer survey1.Remaining%up to 100%“not specified”/“do not wish to answer”Strategy&17Moderate intention to purchase a new or used car,

47、subscription models gaining tractionEven as immediate COVID-19 risk declines,using ones own car remains most popular while costumers are reluctant to use shared and public transportOrder of preferences of connected services remains stable safety and navigation still most importantWillingness to pay

48、for on-demand car functions much higher than for connected servicesPHEVs and BEVs are most preferred type of powertrain only in China while Hydrogen gains popularity in Germany Insufficient driving range and concerns about chargingoptions put respondents off driving electric carsKey resultsn=1,000Ge

49、nder(%)n=1,000n=1,0005149Age(%)Household income(%,gross monthly)23661192710T USD33353318-3455+35-543regions14questions3,000respondentsConsumer Overview44565050452629333333131071810154131242316Occu-pation(%)551036813Worker/employeePupil/Trainee/StudentSelf-employedCivil servantUnemployedWithout occup

50、ation431419643261140291Respondents have not gained more trust in the use of automated cars negative development compared to last yearHigh willingness to pay for automated driving among those respondents who trust the technologyConnected services By importance for consumersStrategy&Source:PwC Strateg

51、y&consumer research 2020;n=3,000(1,000 DE,1,000 US,1,000 CN);PwC Strategy&consumer research 2021;n=3,000(1,000 DE,1,000 US,1,000 CN)18Safety and navigation still most important feature for respondents across all regions.With lifestyle and comfort features,OEMs mainly attract Chinese consumers.”Safet

52、yVehiclemanagementLifestyle and comfort35%Mirror smart-phone in carNavigationOn-demandcar functionsInfotainment/Enterntainment34%69%71%62%41%19%44%38%47%66%62%57%46%94%97%70%87%81%68%87%Question:“Which connected service categories are particularly important to you?”Consumer Connected2021202020212020

53、20212020Order of preferences for connected services remains stable safety and navigation still most importantConnected services Average willingness to pay1)Strategy&Source:PwC Strategy&consumer research 2021;n=3,000(1,000 DE,1,000 US,1,000 CN)1)Local currency conversion to USD 2)For GER and US“Indiv

54、idual”plan Spotify,for CN Kugou Music VIP membership 3)For GER Sky,for US Xfinity;for CN Tencent 4)PwC Strategy&consumer research 2020:n=1000 CN19Acceptance of paying at all for connected car services has increased across regionsHowever,there are strong differences in perceived value among consumers

55、 Chinese are willing to pay least for it,while consumers in US/Germany are prepared to pay a sum comparable to a music subscription.”Consumer ConnectedMore than 2 in 3 respondents are willing to pay for connected services;but respective amount varies greatly between regionsfor a“full set”of connecte

56、d services in the vehicleMusic subscription2)Adobe Photoshop licenseHome internet with premium/Sport TV3)at 69%willingness$180$142$338$1,300 Willingness to pay(annual)Reference prices of other digital&media servicesvs.$120$250$1,200at 62%willingness$148$524)$28$138$520at 94%willingness On-demand car

57、 functions Importance for consumers Strategy&Source:PwC Strategy&consumer research 2021;n=3,000(1,000 DE,1,000 US,1,000 CN)1)Local currency conversion to USD20Consumer ConnectedParticularly basic functions likeair conditioner activation ranked most important,whereas sophisticatedfunctions like parki

58、ng pilot or automated valet parking do not yet seem very important at least in Germany and the US.”Question:“How important would be on-demand car function.to you?”With first on-demand functions becoming available,GER/US users rate air conditioning/headlights/engine power highest annual willingness t

59、o pay1)for car that offers a full set of multiple on-demand car functions67%59%56%49%45%43%28%24%Automated valetparkingAir conditionactivationAdvanced headlightfunctions/performanceExtension of batteryrange(e.g.+80 km)Seat heatingactivationIncrease of enginepower(e.g.+50 hp)Traffic jam pilotParking

60、pilot64%60%78%59%23%43%33%17%84%69%86%81%70%90%56%79%at 60%willingness$675at 45%willingness$760n/a 79 22 18 23 76 75214022341732133 41 29 69 58 55 37591352185123234 24 63 26 31 52 5140111130161731152150%of US and Germany consumers retain strong preference for ICE even young segments.Chinese clearly

61、prefer PHEV/BEVPreferred type of powertrain/engine by age(%)Strategy&Source:PwC Strategy&consumer research 2021;n=3,000(1,000 DE,1,000 US,1,000 CN)Percentages may not total 100%due to rounding21ICE Gasoline&DieselPHEV&BEV23222013151118191661047413621GasolineDieselPHEVBEVPHEV BEVPHEVBEVGasolineDiesel

62、Gasoline Diesel35-54 years55 years18-34 yearsAge segmentUS consumers retain a strong preference for ICE(55-69%)followed by Germany(51-63%),while Chinese clearly prefer BEV/PHEV(75-79%).Despite the common image of being a climate-aware generation,younger segments in Germany and US have clear preferen

63、ce for ICE.Hydrogen gains popularity in Germany likely due to increasing press coverage and public debate.”Question:“Assuming you would buy,lease or subscribe to a passenger car,what type of engine would you like?”Consumer ElectricHydrogenH2O2+4Range anxiety and charging options are major obstacles

64、to choosing an electric car price is less of an issue,particularly in ChinaDeterring factors using an electric carStrategy&Source:PwC Strategy&consumer research 2021;n=1,897(645 DE,677 US,575 CN)-respondents who are not interested in electric cars 22Question:“What is holding you back from choosing a

65、 car with an electric powertrain?”Consumer ElectricIn Germany and the US,insufficient driving range with one battery charge is the biggest deterrent,whereas Chinese respondents raise concerns about whether there is sufficient charging network coverage.”Relatively high purchase priceInsufficient driv

66、ing range with one battery chargeLimited choice and availability of carsConcerned about sufficient charging options/stations66%60%58%13%59%53%56%25%73%78%28%36%Question:Would you personally use a fully autonomous car?Automated driving Consumer attitudes and usage of time gainedStrategy&Source:PwC St

67、rategy&consumer research 2020;n=3,000(1,000 DE,1,000 US,1,000 CN);PwC Strategy&consumer research 2021;1stquestion n=3,000(1,000 DE,1,000 US,1,000 CN);2ndquestion n=1604(383 DE;356 US,865 CN)2348%(32%)62%(36%)14%(36%)24%(28%)woulduse AV18%(38%)18%(26%)39%(59%)64%(36%)14%(9%)would useAV only at low sp

68、eed/parkingwould not use AVTop 3 activities to use within time gained(%of respondents)Relaxation and recovery(e.g.sleep)Media and enter-tainment(e.g.video streaming)39%Work and productivity(e.g.email)51%52%55%45%39%Work and productivity(e.g.email)Media and enter-tainment(e.g.video streaming)Relaxati

69、on and recovery(e.g.sleep)62%62%57%Relaxation and recovery(e.g.sleep)Media and enter-tainment(e.g.video streaming)Social exchange(e.g.video conferen-cing)In general,willingness to use fully automated cars has declined,especially in Germany and the US.Trust in autonomous driving is seen as susceptibl

70、e to change,andconsumer attitudes might fluctuate rapidly as critical headlines emerge,e.g.following accidents and cybersecurity threats.”Trust in automated cars is not growing and has even declined in US and Germany from last yearConsumer Automated vehicles(xx%)=Previous years valuesAutomated drivi

71、ng Willingness to payStrategy&Source:PwC Strategy&consumer research 2021;1stquestion n=198(57 DE,141 US),2nd question n=1604(383 DE;356 US;865 CN)respondents who would use an AV 1)Extra-price you to pay for a 5 km/3 miles ride(knowing the amount for a traditional car is 10 EUR/10 USD/40 CNY)24High w

72、illingness to pay for automated driving experience among respondents who would use a fully automated vehicle310Base pricePremium410$Base pricePremiumQuestion:“When using car sharing or ride hailing,what would be the extra price you would be ready to pay to get an autonomous car driving you around?”1

73、)16%41%19%9%4%7%1%3%1.2-2.4T07.1T2.4-3.6T4.7-5.9T3.6-4.7T5.9-7.1TUSDQuestion:“How much would you be ready to pay on top of the regular car price to have full autonomous car functionality?”21%34%23%7%4%4%2%4%2%15%27%22%17%10%3%3%84%willingness 79%willingness 98%willingness Consumer Automated vehicles

74、n/aMore than 40%of respondents want to purchase a new or used car in next 1-2 years;subscription models attracting more attentionLikelihood to buy/lease/subscribe to a carStrategy&Source:PwC Strategy&consumer research 2021;n=3,000(1,000 DE,1,000 US,1,000 CN)Difference to 100%:no/low likelihood44%47%

75、20%14%Purchase of a new carPurchase/leaseof a used carLease of anew carSubscriptionof a car25As the economic impact of COVID-19 appears to be more predictable in Germany,the intention to get a car grew in that country compared to last years survey.Subscription is gaining in popularity in China,it is

76、 seen as more attractive than leasing;in US it is on a par with leasing,and in Germany its popularity is clearly growing(14%vs.8%last year).”Question:“How likely might you or your household purchase,lease,or subscribe to a passenger car in the next one to two years?”Consumer Smart Mobility44%41%15%1

77、5%63%40%31%44%Likely/very likelyCar-sharing207193149Ownbike67By foot129642714Own car5340Taxi,Uber,83Publictransport77320Sharedmicro-mobility(e.g.scooter)185764Even as immediate COVID-19 risks decline,own car remain most popular as people shy away from shared and public transportMobility pattern afte

78、r COVID-19 restrictions(%)Strategy&26Source:PwC Strategy&consumer research 2021;n=3,000(1,000 DE,1,000 US,1,000 CN)Percentage may not total 100%due to rounding Consumer Smart MobilityQuestion:“COVID-19 has temporarily changed our mobility behavior in many aspects.How do you plan to use modes of tran

79、sport once we have left the pandemic behind us?”MoreLess/not at allSameOwn car is still seen as the safest and most convenient means of transportation and therefore has the highest increase in demand,in particular in China.Across all regions,consumers plan reduced use of shared modes as well as taxi

80、 and ride-hailing even after the pandemic.”3937494353839532643164337622361266341193241273426122959473716473559311146381548%52%Top-3 contributions to CO2reduction Strategy&Source:PwC Strategy&consumer research 2021;n=3,000(1,000 DE,1,000 US,1,000 CN)27High willingness to contribute to CO2reduction,es

81、p.in China(97%)and in Germany(70%)whereas US respondents are less willing(52%).Main contributions will be short distances more often on foot/by bicycle,or switching to an electric car.”Question:“What major personal changes would you like to do to contribute to a reduction in CO2emissions?”45%18%26%D

82、elete completely of short-haul flightsShort distances more often on foot/by bicycleSwitch to an electric carShort distances more often on foot/by bicycle30%12%22%Switch to an electric carUse public transport more frequently Use public transport more frequently 60%49%61%Switch to an electric carShort

83、 distances more often on foot/by bicycle30%70%DonothingChange behavior97%3%Consumer Smart MobilityRespondents want to contribute to CO2 reduction mainly byswitching to an electric car or more walking/cycling(in Germany)59%63%37%44%39%35%27%17%16%8%Factors encouraging sustainable transportation modes

84、Strategy&Source:PwC Strategy&consumer research 2021;n=3,000(1,000 DE,1,000 US,1,000 CN)28Price and availability are by far the top drivers for increasing the use of sustainable transportIn Germany and the US,cheaper prices are most likely to encourage respondents to use sustainable transportation.Ch

85、inese respondents,meanwhile,focus on better availability.”Question:“What would encourage you to use sustainable transportation(e.g.bike sharing,car sharing,public transportation)more frequently?”55%23%20%17%6%Cheaper priceBetter availability(e.g.more bikes)Family offers(e.g.4 bikes for the price of

86、2,.)User-friendly access(e.g.cashless payment via app,.)Incentives by the employer(e.g.job bike,car sharing benefit package,.)Consumer Smart Mobility 27 60 33 38 54 61511931402335312Electric“what type of engine would you like?”Key highlights from Japanese consumer surveyStrategy&Source:PwC Strategy&

87、consumer research 2021;n=1,000 JPNBEV=Battery Electric VehiclesAV=Automated Vehicles29Consumer Connected,Electric,Automated,Smart Mobility JapanConnected29%35%22%21%Subscription of a carPurchase of a new carPurchase/leasing of a used carLeasing of anew carwould useAV only at low speed/parking28%(37%

88、)31%(26%)41%(37%)would not use AVwoulduse AVPHEV BEVGasolineDiesel261494714ICE Gasoline&DieselPHEV and BEVHydro-genH2O2+35-54 years55 years18-34 yearsContrast:Japanese consumers display varied preferences skeptical towards BEV,but open to AV and car subscriptionsDifferent order of preferences of on-

89、demand car functions in Japan from other countries extension of battery range is rated most highly,along with advanced headlight functions/performance76%76%68%67%66%49%47%43%Parking pilotAir conditionactivationIncrease of enginepower(e.g.+50 hp)Extension of batteryrange(e.g.+80 km)Advanced headlight

90、functions/performanceTraffic jam pilotAutomated valetparkingSeat heatingactivation“How important would be on-demand car function.to you?”Automated vehicles“Would you personally use a fully autonomous vehicle?”Smart Mobility“How likely might you purchase,lease,or subscribe to a car?”Gasoline still mo

91、st preferred type of engine among youngest respondents.However,esp.PHEV most popular among 35-54 and 55+year old respondentsIn contrast to other countries,positive development compared with previous year Japanese respondents gaining trust in AVs(xx%)=Previous years valuesLower intention to purchase/

92、lease new/used car than in other countries.However,subscription is gaining interest whencompared to last years survey(15%)Technology progresses fast software-defined vehicle architecture and chip shortage most pressing topic in 2021”Strategy&30ConsumerTechnologyRegulationAutomatedElectricConnectedSm

93、art MobilityDigital Auto Report 2021 Volume 1Enabling connected services will become the make-or-break factor for OEMs in the coming yearsConnected services31Technology ConnectedConnected car services have the potential to transform the driving experience and to unlock new revenues streams for OEMsA

94、fter initial hype,however,OEMs have lessened their focus on connected services.Available vehicle functionality is largely in its infancyNew entrants are likely to enter the automotive market and differentiate themselves with new cloud-based services and an ability to adapt vehicle software on demand

95、First movers will set the standard for future connected car technology and revenue modelsTraditional OEMs need to reconsider strengthening their commitment so that they can transform their vehicle and cloud platforms swiftly,and provide the foundation and scale for future growthStill in its infancyV

96、ehicle optimizationCloud-supported vehicle analytics and optimization of configurationsVisibility Time20152020Today Strategy&Feature activationDynamic activation/deactivation of paid add-on servicesDrive efficiency and safetyInformation exchange between road users and infrastructureValue added servi

97、cesAccess to value-added services and revenuesAutomated drivingCloud-supported situation analytics and driving assistanceFleet managementSupport of fleet management and tracking servicesNavigation and traffic informationAccess to up-to-date navigation and traffic informationSecure software updateOve

98、r-the-air update to elevate functionality and fix issuesAlarming and assistanceAutomatic notification in case of severe accidents or vehicle issuesData/Insights ServicesVehicle-Centric Connected ServicesVehicle Features as a Service5thScreen ServicesBeyond Vehicle ServicesFor connected services,OEMs

99、 are currently rethinking their build vs.buy strategy on key technology components Connected service components of a software-defined vehicleStrategy&V2x:Vehicle-to-everythingI/O:Input/Output E/E:Electric/Electronic HW:Hardware SW:Software 32Key value blocksTransformation of E/E architectureSemicond

100、uctor availabilityCustomer access/identificationData privacyRegional regulationsCybersecurity concernsMNO costsHardware and electronics architectureCloud infrastructureCommunication technology(5G,V2x)Terrestrial and satellite communication networks I/O devices(e.g.,sensors,displays)Integrated Circui

101、ts and SemiconductorsSoftware capabilitiesDevelopment processes Cybersecurity regulationsVehicle OS and Automotive cloud platformVehicle OS and Automotive cloud platformSecure Over-the-Air Update managementData ownershipRevenue modelsUser interface and controlsData Analytics,Privacy and EthicsCloud/

102、hybrid services incl.vehicle health servicesOffering bundling and pricingUser identification and personalizationCustomer supportPlan Build Ship Update Sunset EnablerHardwareSoftwareData/IntegrationSales and CRMCurrentlimitationsContent/ServiceVehicle services and apps3rdparty content and servicesAut

103、omotive Security and ComplianceSystem test capabilitiesDecision on closed vs.open systemsCertificationsCurrentdevelop-mentsDevelopment of own/tailored semiconductorsModular and expandable hardware architecturesCentralization of sales processesCross financing/subscription contractsBuy into cellular a

104、nd satellite networksBuild-up of cloud/edge infrastructuresDevelopment of own software stacksBuild-up of own app storesExpansion of cross-industry and technology alliancesIncrease in automated test and compliance processesBuild-up of own data/analytics platformsCrucial value blocksTechnology Connect

105、edTechnology progress in e-mobility must be evaluated in the context of tech trends across various alternative powertrainsAlternative powertrain developmentsStrategy&Source:Strategy&33Technology ElectricFuel cell systemInternal combustion engineElectric drivetrain(electric motor,inverter,transmissio

106、n)Optimization of fiber winding layout and processMixed materials to reduce costsCompressed H2as standard for passenger vehiclesHV battery systemICEFCEVBEVPHEVStackIncrease of power densityOptimization of catalyst compositions(reduction of Pt)and nano-scale microstructureOptimization of bipolar plat

107、e coatingsBalance of plantsStack internal humidification and simplified water mgmt.TankHigh voltage system and architectureElectrificationRecuperation and boost as standard features with 12V(budget)or 48VIncreased electrification of auxiliaries(water/oil pumps,cam phaser,etc.)P2 topology avoiding dr

108、ag torqueCombustion/emission optimizationIncreasing injection pressuresVariability in valve trains Particle filters for most powertrains including DI gasolinesVariable compression ratio through variable connection rodReduction of friction lossesCoatings and microstructural modifications on cylinderO

109、ptimization of crankshaft bearingsBall bearings for turbochargerSystem designStructural integration of housing into vehicle body(cell-to-vehicle)System design incl.recyclabilityArchitectureIntegration of power-units(OBC,DCDC,DC charger)Top models up to 800 V,standard in volume 400 VAuxiliariesIncrea

110、sing commoditization of electrified auxiliariesEfficiency improvementSilicon carbide power semi-conductor switches(inverter)Bar windings and increased notch filling degree in electric motorCost reductionsIncreased integration of inverter and motorCell innovationIncreased cell capacity through larger

111、 cellsCathode cost reduction by minimization of cobalt content and cobalt-free cells(e.g.iron-phosphate)Dry(solvent-free)processing of electrode coatingsIncreased anode energy density via siliconIntrinsic safe cells by application of solid state electrolytes(polymers,inorganics,blends)H2O2+By the en

112、d of the decade,BEVs will be the most economic powertrain solution for almost all segmentsElectric powertrain operating cost break-even timeline(vs.ICE)Main assumptions:electricity and fuel prices as for Germany 2020;H2 price 5/kg;PHEV driving modes 40%EV mode/60%ICE mode;FCEV driving modes 40%EV mo

113、de/60%FC modeOne-time buying incentives not consideredSource:Strategy&Technology ElectricStrategy&34There is no fixed point in time when battery electric vehicles will offer an operating cost advantage over internal combustion engines it depends on factors such as the vehicle segment and rangeVehicl

114、esegmentRangeViable powertrainsA/BBudget70 kWLowMidLong150 km300 km600 kmC/DVolume100 kWMidLongExtra-long300 km600 km800 kmE/FPremium250 kWMidLongExtra-long300 km600 km800 kmEvolution of TCO leader202520302020Break-even201920252035202220272032201820222028H2O2+H2O2+H2O2+H2O2+H2O2+H2O2+H2O2+Automated

115、driving technology developmentsStrategy&Technology AutomatedExisting radar and camera technology will be improved to achieve better resolution.LiDAR technology has still not reached the cost pointThe appropriate sensor setting for future Level 3/4 vehicles has not yet been finally defined.Ongoing di

116、scussions between camera-only solution and other solutionsNew ADAS computers based on low power tech are under developmentDifferent driver assistant systems mandatory beginning 2022 in EUSoftwaree.g.smart data usageInfrastructuree.g.5GTest and validation not yet matureMotion prediction still not com

117、pletely solvedVery large amounts of test data complicatetraditional analyticsSo far,there are only a few test tracks that are fully developed for automated drivingExpansion of 4G by 2022 for motorways in GER as basis for 5GFor the time being only pseudo 5G based on 4G(non stand-alone)Hardware e.g.se

118、nsorsCurrent status and limitations35Hardware,software and infrastructure of automated driving are improving,but still not reached level necessary for scaling upSurround viewSurround viewPark assistEmergency brakingEnvironmentMappingCross traffic alertLane assistTraffic sign recognitionRear collisio

119、n warningEnvironment mappingBlindspotPark assistRear viewTopo-graphydetectionCollision avoidancePedestrian detectionDrivermonitoringEmergency vehicle recognitionUltrasoundShort-/medium-range radarCameraLIDARLong-range radarMicrophoneSource:Strategy&Once reaching maturity at L3 with broad use case de

120、ployment,rapid breakthrough of L4 technologies expected soon afterAutomated driving SAE levels and AD function mappingStrategy&Source:“SAE International Standard J3016”,SAE;Strategy&ODD=Operational design domainTechnology AutomatedHIGHLOWSAE levelNarrative definitionVehicle controlEnvironment monito

121、ring and user interfaceFallback for dynamic driving taskSystem capability Exemplary AD functionalities5Full driving automationThe system performs all aspects of dynamic driving(driving-mode specific)under all environmental and road conditions that can be managed by a human driver(not ODD specificSys

122、temSystemAlternative or conventional user interfaceSystemAll driving modes Universal pilot(full autonomy)Interactive pilot driving(control via touch/gesture UI)Robo-taxi and automated people-mover(all conditions)4High driving automationeven if a human driver does not respond appropriately to a reque

123、st to intervene(ODD specific)Most driving modes Urban/rural/highway pilot with multi-lane change Robo-taxi and automated people-mover Urban last-mile delivery Automated valet parking3Conditional driving automationexpecting the human driver to respond appropriately to an intervention request(ODD spec

124、ific)HumanSomedriving modes Urban/rural/highway assistant(e.g.hands-off traffic jam,intersection movement,single lane change)Parking chauffeur Assisted fleet operations(on-site,off-highway)dPartial Driving automationThe human driver performsremaining aspects of dynamic driving,while the systemexecut

125、es both steering andacceleration/deceleration(driving-mode specific and depending on ODD)HumanConventional user interface Adaptive cruise control Remote/key parking assistant Lane change assistant1Driver assistanceexecutes either steering oracceleration/deceleration(driving-mode specific and dependi

126、ng on ODD)Human and System Adaptive cruise control Driver assisted parking assistant Lane keeping assistant(system steers)Blind spot monitoring rear/side(system steers)0No driving automationThe human driver performs all aspects of dynamic driving,potentially“enhanced”by warning or intervention syste

127、msHumann/a Pre-/forward-collision braking Front/rear cross-traffic alert with brakingAUTOMATION36Commercially viable automated driving applications at L3 and beyond will start becoming available for specific use cases firstAutomated driving timeline of commercial road availability1)ADAS=Advanced Dri

128、ver Assistance Systems 2)Indicating start of availability.Tipping points of significant adoption expected significantly later in certain fieldsSource:Strategy&Robo-taxiNo defined routes2-6 seatsPeople moverPre-defined route(s)7-12 seatsOwned vehicleNo defined routes2-5 seatsLevel 4Level 5xxMax.speed

129、Area restrictionConstruction area capableAutomatedlane changes13030RestrictedAreas50RestrictedAreas60RestrictedAreasRural(Sub-)UrbanRuralUrbanHighway ADAS1)technologies require higher development cost and efforts than anticipated ADAS sensors still far above target cost,due to small production volum

130、es and sensor fusion/recognition challenges Regulation is advancing,with UN/ECE technical framework being finalized and e.g.German law for automated and autonomous driving already in place First L3 vehicle is already approved up to 60 km/h according to UNECE ALKS.Further vehicles expected for 2021/2

131、2Current developmentsStrategy&Last mile logisticsUrban20212023202520272029203120332035Pre-defined route(s)e.g.,parcel stationLevel 3Level 2+40RestrictedAreas60RestrictedAreas130100RestrictedAreas50RestrictedAreas60RestrictedAreasClosed compounds50100Technology Automated(Sub-)UrbanUrban:Traffic situa

132、tions with many traffic interactions and low speedsSub-Urban:Traffic situations with moderate traffic interactions and moderate speedsRural:Traffic situations with few traffic interactions and higher speedsVehicle follows user20RestrictedAreas130Commercial availability(beyond pilot projects)2)3738In

133、dividual mobility divides into four modes of private vs.shared and active vs.passive driving,each with increasing automationPrivate/shared mobility modes with selected automated driving use casesStrategy&1)Includes self-owned,family-owned,credit-financed,long-term leased,personal company car 2)Inclu

134、des rental,subscription(up to 1 year),ride-hailing,ride-sharing,car sharing,pool car,car club3)“Passenger”determines mobility purpose/destination and selects means of transport with certain expected time of arrival;“mobility system”determines detailed routing and actual time/place of arrival4)“Drive

135、r”determines mobility purpose/target and selects means of transport with certain arrival time;“driver”determines detailed routing and actual time/place of arrival through User Interface(UI)Source:PwC AutoFacts,Strategy&ACTIVE4)I am the driver”PASSIVE3)I am a passenger”Technology Smart mobilityL3L0-2

136、L3L4L5L0-2L3L4L5L0-2L4L5PRIVATE1)Personally-owned vehicleSHARED2)Collective vehicle or rideAUTONOMATION LEVELAUTONOMATION LEVELL0-2L3L4L5Private/family driverUniversal pilotTaxi,ride hailing/poolingRobotaxiAutomated people moverSelf driveCar sharing,rental,subscriptionUrban/rural/highway pilotAutoma

137、ted valet parkingInteractive pilot driving(vehicle control via touch/gesture UI“for fun”)Urban/rural/highway assistant(for private driver)Interactive pilot driving(vehicle control via touch/gesture UI“for fun”)Parking assistant(for private driver)Urban/rural/highway assistantParking/pick-up assistan

138、tUrban/rural/highway assistantAssisted fleet operations(on operator site)Urban/rural/highway assistant(for public driver)Differentiating AD use caseTraditional base use caseCar sharing/subscription platforms rely on micro-mobility technology stacks when migrating towards electric car fleetsSmart mob

139、ility technology platform building blocks Example of e-vehicle fleet providerStrategy&Technology Smart mobility39Source:Strategy&Charging and battery managementEnergy demand predictionBattery replacement and recyclingCharge point managementAsset and fleet managementVehicle condition monitoring/telem

140、aticsAsset lifecycle managementMaintenance and repair managementInternal Business OperationsCustomer acquisition/marketingIT mgmt(IoT,data and analytics,cyber,.)Finance and controlling,risk and legal,HR,.User interface and apps(drivers,fleet operators,partners)Calculation and contractingBilling and

141、paymentPartner integration(API)and external data sourcingCustomer operationsOnboarding(identity,access,)Charging and maintenanceIncident managementIntuitive digital user experienceEasy electric vehicle accessHigh vehicle availabilityReliable&fast chargingEfficient business operationsTechnical platfo

142、rm capabilitiesKey benefits Providing a seamless electric vehicle sharing/subscription experience,requires a holistic technology architecture and IT platform approach covering functionalities on five levels The IT platforms need to address very different performance requirements(e.g.operating telema

143、tics/fleet monitoring vs.managing back-end billing processes)To enable fast scale-up in multiple cities,API/open standards/interfaces are key to swift onboarding of external partners and adoption of local(regulatory)requirements Cloud-based systems ensure high reliability/scale-up flexibility,while

144、supporting efficient process executionCurrent developmentsRegulation is aiming to accelerate the mobility transformation butvarious regions have followed very different approaches”Strategy&TechnologyConsumerRegulationAutomatedElectricConnectedSmart MobilityDigital Auto Report 2021 Volume 140Source:S

145、trategy&China and EU leads regulatory discussions on CASE trends EV penetration and AV enablement are leading focus areasLatest regulatory initiatives and discussions(excerpt)USAAUTOMATED:U.S.Department of Transportation released Automated Vehicles Comprehensive Plan laying out strategy for safe int

146、egration of Automated Driving Systems(01/2021)AUTOMATEDEC adopted a package under European Green Deal incl.CO2emission standards1)(07/2021)Germany is first country to pass regulation for completely driverless vehicles allowing commercial deployment of L4 AV use-cases with focus on MaaS(05/2021)AUTOM

147、ATEDShared:EC promoting deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure with directive revision and Strategic Rollout Action PlanRegulationLagging behind other regions;New impulses from Biden administration particularly for EVs expectedNHTSA issued a Standing General Order to report crashes of L2-L5

148、vehicles to identify safety issues emerging from automated vehicles(06/2021)AUTOMATEDNote:(1)average emissions of new cars to come down by 55%from 2030 and 100%from 2035 compared to 2021 levels(2)1:improve capacity for technology innovation;2:build an NEV industry ecosystem;3:advance industrial inte

149、gration and development;4:build a sound infrastructure system;and 5:increase openness and deepen international cooperation AV=Automated vehicle;EC=European Commission;NCAP=New Car Assessment Program;NHTSA=National Highway Traffic Safety Administration;UNECE=United Nations Economic Commission for Eur

150、opeSource:Strategy&Automated Draft to amend Road Traffic Safety Law clarifying requirements for AV road testing and regulating liabilities for traffic violations and accidents(03/2021)Autonomous:Guide for Admission of Intelligent and Connected Vehicle Manufacturers and Products drafted regulation of

151、 safety requirements for AV manufacturers(04/2021)AUTOMATEDAUTOMATEDTop-down approach based on long-term strategy with positive impact on CASEAutonomous:France to allow future use of vehicles controlled by automated driving systems on predefined routes or zones starting from 09/2022(07/2021)AUTOMATE

152、DEU states with a siloed/bottom-up approach towards CASE regulationElectric:Regulations on Recall of Motor Vehicle Emissions extending original safety recalls to emission recalls(07/2021)ELECTRICEUGLOBALConnected:UNECE establishing uniform provisions concerning approval of vehicles with regard to Au

153、tomated Lane Keeping Systems(ALKS)(03/2021)Recently introduced regulations at UN level with positive impact on CASE adoption,further steps requiredChinaSeveral measures from Biden administration to accelerate deployment of EV charging infrastructure(04/2021)ELECTRICStrategy&41Neutral expert sentimen

154、tPositive expert sentimentNegative expert sentimentRelease of new ISO 22737 defining minimum requirements&test procedures for low-speed autonomous driving(LSAD)systems(designed to operate L4 automation)(07/2021)ELECTRICELECTRICAUTOMATEDAUTOMATEDElectric:New Energy Vehicle Industrial Development Plan

155、 for 2021 to 2035 with 5 strategic tasks released2)(10/2020)ELECTRICConnected:International regulation on cybersecurity and software updates as well as their respective management systems enacted by UNECE(01/2021)CONNECTEDDeveloping capabilities to comply with data regulation is vital if OEMs are to

156、 exploit CASE opportunities fullyMajor data regulations(excerpt)42ObjectiveObjectiveDigital services actRegulate online inter-mediaries and platformsGDPREnsure data protection and privacyData governanceactStrengthen data sharing mechanismsDigital marketsactRegulate gatekeeper platformsFurther regula

157、tions accelerating data sharingFacilitate data sharing among public and private bodiesTrade secret protection actDefine and protect trade secretsFederal privacy lawsState-level privacy lawsFederal gov data publica-tion lawsDomain and sector specific regulations for privacy protectionGrant rights for

158、 data privacy protectionMake government-held information accessible to publicDrivers Privacy Protection ActGoverns privacy and disclosure of personal information Specify right of privacy of natural personsProtect data e.g.by storage of personal and important data within the PRCRegulate handling of p

159、ersonal and important data in automotiveCivil codeChina cybersecurity lawProvisions on managementof automotive data securityMultiple national standardsFoster measures to protect data and prevent unauthorized access and abuseObjectiveHeterogeneous regulation across states,balancing privacy concerns a

160、nd adoption of new technologiesIncreasing complexity and requirements to meet privacy requirements as well as national interests need for China-specific data solutions Framework for data sharing/usage under ultimate premise of protecting customers privacy and data rightsRegulationStrategy&Network co

161、ntactsJrg K Automotive EuropeJrn N Alternative PowertrainsJonas SConnected&Smart MobilityHartmut GAutomated DrivingContributors 2021 PwC.All rights reserved.PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms,each of which is a separate legal entity.Please see for further details.Me

162、ntions of Strategy&refer to the global team of practical strategists that is integrated within the PwC network of firms.For more about Strategy&,see .No reproduction is permitted in whole or part without written permission of PwC.Disclaimer:This content is for general purposes only,and should not be

163、 used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.Claus G Software DevelopmentFelix AndreKunal AroraSteven van ArsdaleThilo BhnenChristoph FallerAnil KhuranaPatrick LillNicola SchudnagiesAndreas GDigital TransformationAndrew Higashi Steffen HoppeSebastian JurschTobias KillmeierFelix

164、KuhnertKentaro AAutomotive JapanAkshay SAutomotive USContacts ChinaSteven JiangLeader of China Experience C 2021 PwC.All rights reserved.PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms,each of which is a separate legal entity.Please see for further details.Mentions of Strategy&r

165、efer to the global team of practical strategists that is integrated within the PwC network of firms.For more about Strategy&,see .No reproduction is permitted in whole or part without written permission of PwC.Disclaimer:This content is for general purposes only,and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.Huchu XuPJun JinPwC China Automotive LElina LuDTina LiuSenior MLingzhi YangSenior MFrank LiuD