1、REPORTU.S.Seniors Housing&Care Investor Survey 2023CBRE ResearchJuly 2023Intelligent Investment2CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.INTELLIGENT INVESTMENTU.S.Seniors Housing&Care Investor Survey 2023|ReportAbout Our SurveyThis 12th edition of CBREs Seniors Housing&Care Investor Survey polled a more select g

2、roup of seniors housing thought leaders than previous surveys.The resulting market sentiment insights are therefore based exclusively on feedback from industry veterans.While the past two surveys focused largely on changing market conditions caused by the COVID pandemic,this years survey focused mor

3、e on the impacts of inflation,staffing shortages and rising interest rates.CBRE Seniors Housing Investor Survey,2023.Figure 1:Survey Respondent Categories(%)2424202255Mix of RespondentsPrivate Capital InvestorBrokerDeveloperInstitutional InvestorOtherREIT3CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.INTELLIGENT INVE

4、STMENTU.S.Seniors Housing&Care Investor Survey 2023|ReportSeniors Housing Trends Skilled Nursing(SN)cap rates decreased by 34 basis points(bps)year-over-year.This was the only seniors housing care category with a lower average cap rate.The average cap rate for Active Adult(AA)communities,which once

5、again led the“top investor opportunity”category,increased by 21 bps year-over-year(+57 bps in the Class A segment).Average capitalization rates for Independent Living(IL),Assisted Living(AL)and Memory Care(MC)facilities increased by 28 bps year-over-year,with greater increases for Class A assets tha

6、n Class B and for core markets than non-core.Difficulty in maintaining adequate staffing levels ranked as the greatest headwind facing the seniors housing industry this year.For AA,IL,AL and MC facilities,the greatest percentage of respondents reported underwriting rental rate increases of 3%to 7%ov

7、er the past 12 months.Year-over-year cap rate changes(bps)SNF-34CCRC+38AL+11IL+4AA+21MC+594CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.INTELLIGENT INVESTMENTU.S.Seniors Housing&Care Investor Survey 2023|ReportInvestor Survey ResultsThe average seniors housing capitalization rate increased by 26 bps year-over-year,w

8、hile the average Skilled Nursing capitalization rate decreased by 34 bps.A clear bifurcation emerged between Class A and Class C assets,with cap rates increasing 57 bps for Core Class A Active Adult to 5.2%from 4.6%and decreasing 24 bps for Core Class C Active Adult to 6.6%from 6.8%.Likewise,Core Cl

9、ass C Skilled Nursing cap rates decreased 103 bps year-over-year to 12.3%from 13.3%,a much bigger decrease than for Core Class A.Survey respondents view assets with the lowest cap rates as those most negatively impacted by rising interest rates.The Terraces at CC YoungDallas,TexasRendering:HKSClass

10、AClass BClass CLow -High(%)Avg.(%)Change(bps)Low -High(%)Avg.(%)Change(bps)Low -High(%)Avg.(%)Change(bps)CoreActive Adult4.0 -7.05.2574.0 -7.05.9215.0 -9.06.6-24Independent Living4.0 -7.05.7414.0 -7.06.5256.0 -9.07.1-23Assisted Living5.0 -8.06.4295.0 -8.07.266.0 -10.08.1-19Memory Care5.0 -9.07.4415.

11、0 -9.08.3716.0 -12.09.140Skilled Nursing7.0 -13.010.6-137.0 -13.011.5-38.0 -14.012.3-103CCRC/LPC5.0 -11.07.7695.0 -11.08.5566.0 -13.09.217Non-CoreActive Adult4.0 -8.05.9674.0 -8.06.5325.0 -10.07.0-24Independent Living5.0 -8.06.3155.0 -8.07.126.0 -10.07.7-38Assisted Living5.0 -9.06.805.0 -9.07.8376.0

12、 -13.08.611Memory Care6.0 -10.07.9566.0 -10.08.8847.0 -12.09.662Skilled Nursing7.0 -14.011.247.0 -14.011.9198.0 -14.012.5-108CCRC/LPC5.0 -12.08.1165.0 -12.08.9467.0 -13.09.621Average Change per Class3233-16Figure 2:Seniors Housing&Care Capitalization RatesCBRE Seniors Housing Investor Survey,2023;ch

13、ange from 2022,Survey.5CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.INTELLIGENT INVESTMENTU.S.Seniors Housing&Care Investor Survey 2023|ReportOverall cap rate spreads between asset classes fell by 32 bps year-over-year,largely due to a 47-bp decrease in the spread between Class A and C.The spread between Class A and

14、 C Skilled Nursing assets fell by 101 bps to just 150 this year.The reduction in spreads resulted from the higher cost of debt on the lowest yielding asset classes,together with a significant reduction in cap rates for Class C assets across all acuity levels except memory care.The average spread bet

15、ween core and non-core assets was essentially unchanged at 49 bps.The Terraces at CC YoungDallas,TexasRendering:HKSAsset Class Spreads(bps)A-BChangeB-CChangeA-CChangeCoreActive Adult73-3665-45138-81Independent Living82-1655-48137-64Assisted Living79-2392-25172-47Memory Care923079-31172-1Skilled Nurs

16、ing901075-100165-90CCRC/LPC84-1269-39153-51Non-CoreActive Adult65-3550-56115-91Independent Living83-1357-40140-53Assisted Living973686-2618310Memory Care892886-221757Skilled Nursing721562-127134-112CCRC/LPC773170-251476Figure 3:Seniors Housing&Care Capitalization Rate Spreads by Asset Class&Location

17、CBRE Seniors Housing Investor Survey,2023;change from 2022,Survey.Location Spreads-Core vs.Non-Core(bps)AChangeBChangeCChangeActive Adult65105711420Independent Living59-2660-2262-14Assisted Living43-2861315529Memory Care441540134722Skilled Nursing5917412228-5CCRC/LPC45-5337-103846CBRE RESEARCH 2023

18、CBRE,INC.INTELLIGENT INVESTMENTU.S.Seniors Housing&Care Investor Survey 2023|ReportCapitalization Rate Trends The Terraces at CC YoungDallas,TexasRendering:HKSFigure 4a:Historical Cap Rate Trends Independent Living,Assisted Living&Memory Care Note:Time periods represent when surveys were done.CBRE S

19、eniors Housing Investor Survey,2023.6.606.807.007.207.407.607.808.008.208.40H1 2014H2 2015H1 2016H1 2017H2 2017H1 2018H1 2019H1 2020H2 2020H1 202120222023%Independent LivingAssisted LivingMemory Care7CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.INTELLIGENT INVESTMENTU.S.Seniors Housing&Care Investor Survey 2023|Repo

20、rtThe Terraces at CC YoungDallas,TexasRendering:HKSFigure 4b:Historical Cap Rate Trends Skilled Nursing11.8512.0512.2512.4512.6512.85H1 2014H2 2015H1 2016H1 2017H2 2017H1 2018H1 2019H1 2020H2 2020H1 202120222023%Skilled Nursing8.258.358.458.558.658.758.858.959.05H1 2014H2 2015H1 2016H1 2017H2 2017H1

21、 2018H1 2019H1 2020H2 2020H1 202120222023CCRC/LPC%Figure 4c:Historical Cap Rate Trends CCRC/LPCNote:Time periods represent when surveys were done.CBRE Seniors Housing Investor Survey,2023.8CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.INTELLIGENT INVESTMENTU.S.Seniors Housing&Care Investor Survey 2023|ReportSurvey Re

22、spondents Expectations for the Year AheadFigure 6:12-Month Cap Rate Outlook(%)CBRE Seniors Housing Investor Survey,2022(Inner Ring)and 2023(Outer Ring)What seniors housing care level do you see as the biggest opportunity for investment?Active Adult again led for investor expectations of risk-adjuste

23、d returns,widening its lead as the biggest investment opportunity in 2023.Independent Living decreased significantly with only 13%of respondents selecting the class as the biggest opportunity for investment.What is your 12-month outlook for seniors housing cap rates?In a significant change from CBRE

24、s prior survey,nearly 50%of respondents said they expect cap rates will increase in 2023,compared with only 27%of respondents last year.A majority of respondents cited higher borrowing costs and a constrained lending environment as the most significant threats to the seniors housing industry over th

25、e next 12 months.Figure 5:Biggest Opportunity for Investment(%)CBRE Seniors Housing Investor Survey,2022(Inner Ring)and 2023(Outer Ring)34262310443729135115Active AdultAssisted LivingIndependent LivingMemory CareNursing CareCCRC/LPC492724324819No ChangeIncreaseDecrease9CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.IN

26、TELLIGENT INVESTMENTU.S.Seniors Housing&Care Investor Survey 2023|ReportRent Growth ExpectationsRespondents were asked how they were underwriting rental rate trends over the next 12 months.More than 75%of respondents expect rental rate increases of 3.0%or more over the next 12 months across all clas

27、ses except Skilled Nursing.No respondents expected rent decreases for any asset class.The proportion of interviewees who reported underwriting rent growth above 7%nearly doubled for Assisted Living,increasing to 28.1%in 2023 from 15.0%in 2022.The Terraces at CC YoungDallas,TexasRendering:HKSFigure 7

28、:Rent Growth ExpectationsCBRE Seniors Housing Investor Survey,2023.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Increase 7%+Increase 3-7%Increase 1-3%FlatDecrease 1-3%Decrease 3-7%Decrease 7%+Active AdultIndependent LivingAssisted LivingMemory CareSkilled NursingCCRC/LPC Copyright 2023.All rights reserved.This report

29、has been prepared in good faith,based on CBREs current anecdotal and evidence based views of the commercial real estate market.Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation,they are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies,many of which are

30、 beyond CBREs control.In addition,many of CBREs views are opinion and/or projections based on CBREs subjective analyses of current market circumstances.Other firms may have different opinions,projections and analyses,and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBREs current views to later b

31、e incorrect.CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions,projections,analyses or market circumstances later change.Nothing in this report should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBREs securities or of the performance of any other companys securities.You

32、should not purchase or sell securitiesof CBRE or any other companybased on the views herein.CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein,and by viewing this report,you waive all claims against CBRE as well as against CBREs affiliates,officers,directors,em

33、ployees,agents,advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy,completeness,adequacy or your use of the information herein.Valuation&Advisory ServicesDaniel Lincoln,MAISeniors Housing&HealthcareValuation&Advisory Services+1 205 515 Andy Kepchar,MAISeniors Housing&HealthcareValuation&Advisor

34、y Services+1 205 253 ContactsCBRE ResearchMatt VanceAmericas Head of Multifamily Research|Senior EconomistCBRE|Americas Research|Econometric Advisors+1 312 780 1252 Travis DeeseResearch Associate DirectorCBRE|Americas Research|Econometric Advisors+1 404 812 Jordan Lee,MAISeniors Housing&HealthcareValuation&Advisory Services+1 503 946 Marcus LussierSeniors Housing&HealthcareValuation&Advisory Services+1 310 849 Jean-Pierre LoMonaco,MAISeniors Housing&HealthcareValuation&Advisory Services+1 310 994 Daniel J.Schneider,MAISeniors Housing&HealthcareValuation&Advisory Services+1 240 338