1、張小可FALENDRA KUMARVisiting Fellow ProgramAnalysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation ofCAREC and Eurasian Countries Along theRoutes in Regional Value ChainsFEBRUARY 2024 Visiting Fellow Program Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Par

2、ticipation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains by Dr.Falendra Kumar Project Supervisor:Dr.Asif Razzaq February 2024 CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasia

3、n Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.ii Disclaimer Under the Visiting Fellow Program,the CAREC Institute issued research grants in 2023 to support scholars and researchers to produce targeted knowledge products that would add to the body of knowledge on regional cooperation in the C

4、AREC region.Scholars were encouraged to conduct research on CAREC integration topics and carry out comparative analyses between(sub)regions to obtain insights for promoting and deepening regional integration among CAREC member countries particularly,as anticipated in the CAREC 2030 strategy and stat

5、ed operational priorities.The paper is written by Dr.Falendra Kumar.Dr.Asif Razzaq,Senior Research Specialist of the CAREC Institute,advised on this research,and Ms.Emma Tong,Research Specialist of the CAREC Institute,provided grant administration support and coordination throughout the process.The

6、CAREC Institutes Publication Board reviewed the paper and provided comments for its further improvement.The research is funded through the technical and financial assistance from the Asian Development Bank(ADB)under TA-6694 REG:Supporting the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Institute-Inte

7、rnational Expert(CAREC Institute Visiting Fellow-Batch 3).The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the CAREC Institute,its funding entities,or its Governing Council.The CAREC Institute does not guarantee accuracy of the dat

8、a included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of its use.The terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with the CAREC Institutes official terms.The CAREC Institute accepts no liability or responsibility for any partys use of this paper or for the consequences o

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12、er or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.The CAREC Institute cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation(CAREC)Institute 21st Floor,Commercial Building Block 8,Vanke Metropolitan,No.66 Longten

13、g Road,Shuimogou District,Urumqi,Xinjiang,the PRC,830028 f:+86-991-8891151 L inkedIn:carec-institute km carecinstitute.o rg ww w.carecinstitute.o rg CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Cou

14、ntries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.iii Abstract This study analyzes the comparative efficiency of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation(CAREC)transport corridors and their impact on the participation of the CAREC and Eurasian countries along routes in regional value chains(RVC

15、s);it explores the barriers and challenges to participation in RVCs in the CAREC region;and draws policy recommendations to enhance the efficiency of CAREC corridors and bolster the participation of countries along routes in RVCs.Data envelopment analysis(DEA)has been applied to analyze the comparat

16、ive efficiency of the CAREC corridors during 2010 to 2020.A difference-in-differences method has been integrated into propensity score matching to avoid selection bias to analyze the participation of CAREC corridor economies along routes in RVCs.The study reveals that only Corridor 4 demonstrated ef

17、ficiency over 2010 to 2020,while Corridors 1 and 5 exhibited consistent performance during 2010 to 2015.However,Corridors 3 and 6 were less efficient than the most efficient Corridor 4.Despite this,Corridors 3 and 6 displayed an increasing return to scale over 2010 to 2020,indicating that a proporti

18、onate rise in all inputs led to a greater proportionate increase in output.All the corridors can reorient their transit infrastructure through vigorous reforms and can learn significantly from the existing transit facilitation being carried out in Corridor 4.Empirical results underline the construct

19、ive impact of CAREC corridors on the participation in RVCs of countries along designated routes and underscore the multifaceted interplay of factors shaping the participation of CAREC corridor countries in RVCs.The CAREC transport corridor organizations must downsize operational costs to enhance the

20、 value of facilities provided by the corridors and realize the necessary valuable progress of functioning corridor efficiency by lowering transport costs and travel time.With lower trade transit costs,the CAREC transport corridors can be transformed into economic corridors to tap the novel trade opp

21、ortunities that have emerged in the Eurasian countries.This requires CAREC economies to renovate manufacturing methods and acquire suitable export and investment opportunities.Keywords:transport corridors efficiency,regional value chains,CAREC,Eurasian countries,policy implications Table of Contents

22、 Abstract.iii Abbreviations.3 1.Introduction.4 1.1.Study rationale.4 1.2.Problem statement.5 2.Methodology.5 2.1.Efficiency measurement of CAREC transport corridors.5 2.1.1.Variables.5 2.1.2.Data sources.6 2.1.3.Methodology to estimate efficiency.7 2.2.RVC participation measurement.9 2.2.1.Dependent

23、 variable and measurement.9 2.2.2.Explanatory variables.9 2.2.3.Control variables.10 2.2.4.Data sources.10 2.2.5.Methodological approach.10 3.Results and discussion.13 3.1.Efficiency measurement of the CAREC transport corridors.13 3.2.Analysis of CAREC Corridor Performance Measurement and Monitoring

24、 database.15 3.3.Measurement of CAREC corridor participation in RVCs.17 3.3.1.Descriptive statistics.17 3.3.2.Common support assessment and ROC analysis.18 3.3.3.Balancing test and matching validity assessment.19 3.3.4.Empirical findings on participation in RVCs.20 3.3.5.Impact of various factors on

25、 RVC participation.22 3.3.6.Robustness analysis.23 4.Conclusion.23 5.Policy recommendations.24 5.1.Improving the efficiency of CAREC transport corridors.24 5.2.Bolstering the participation in RVCs.25 6.Limitations and future research direction.26 References.27 CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program

26、 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.2 Figures Figure 1:The kernel density graph of the PSM in the treatment group and control group.19 Tables Table 1:Indicators and their defi

27、nitions.6 Table 2:CAREC corridors and the regions/countries.7 Table 3:Main variables and indicators.10 Table 4:Estimates of efficiency scores across the CAREC transport corridors.13 Table 5:Estimates of return to scale across the CAREC transport corridors.14 Table 6:Descriptive statistics of variabl

28、es.18 Table 7:Balancing test for propensity score matching.20 Table 8:Test for how well the model fits.20 Table 9:Effect of corridors on the RVC participation of countries along the routes.21 CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of

29、the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.3 Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank ASEAN Association of the Southeast Asian Nations BEC broad economic category CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation COVID COronaVIrus Disease CRS constant

30、return to scale DEA data envelopment analysis DID difference-in-differences DMU decision making unit DRS decreasing return to scale FDI foreign direct investment GDP gross domestic product GFCF gross fixed capital formation GPN global production network GVC global value chain IFS international finan

31、cial statistics IMAR Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region IMF International Monetary Fund IRS increasing return to scale LR likelihood ratio NTB non-tariff barrier PRC Peoples Republic of China OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development PSM propensity score matching ROC receiver operatin

32、g characteristic RPN regional production network RVC regional value chain SE scale efficiency TEU 20 ft equivalent unit UN United Nations COMTRADE commodity trade US United States VRS variable return to scale XUAR Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis

33、 of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.4 1.Introduction Transport corridor efficiency is essential to guarantee the sustainable transition to market-oriented Central Asia Regional Cooperation(

34、CAREC)economies via better regional connectivity.The analysis of transport corridors helps determine the potential efficiency and enhance system productivity to increase economic growth.Efficiency estimation improves the skills to determine the factors triggering transport corridor inefficiency and

35、ways to enhance efficiency over the period.Efficient transport and trade connectivity can boost economic growth in the CAREC region through greater integration to regional and international production networks,which in turn generate novel economic opportunities,foster greater economic diversificatio

36、n,reduce transport costs and transit time,and integrate domestic and regional manufacturing centers and boost regional trade(Kalyuzhnova and Holzhacker,2021).Efficient CAREC transport corridors can foster greater trade flows and significantly improve economic affluence along the routes.The improved

37、efficiency of CAREC transport corridors can bolster regional value chain(RVC)integration to regional and international markets.The increased efficiency of CAREC transport corridors can make RVCs highly resilient to external shocks owing to expanded trade linkages along the routes.However,there are i

38、mmense disparities in the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors across the regional economies.To improve the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors,regional economies need to construct efficient road and rail connectivity as well as build quality flight connectivity.In addition,intraregio

39、nal connectivity routes need to link the CAREC countries to seaports.The linkage of CAREC transport corridors via the Peoples Republic of China(PRC)and Pakistan can give strong connectivity to seaports.Despite the significant economic growth and trade performance displayed by landlocked countries,th

40、e integration of firms into RVCs remained feeble,which calls for efficient and inclusive transport corridorsto address transport and trade barriers.The efficiency of transport corridors and constraints at border clearance points should therefore be addressed urgently to bolster the RVC integration o

41、f countries along routes and develop compatible trade facilitation and soft infrastructure.The improved efficiency of transport corridors can certainly enhance RVC integration and trade flows,thereby boosting economic growth in the CAREC countries.Therefore,it is imperative to analyze the performanc

42、e efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors to remain competitive and integrate into RVCs and regional and global markets and to offer policy recommendations to enhance the gains from RVC integration and trade flows along the CAREC transport corridor routes.1.1.Study rationale In the CAREC region,

43、little is written about transport corridor efficiency and RVC integration along the corridor routes.Sustainable economic development,improved trade flows,and robust RVC integration in landlocked CAREC countries require smoother transit via country corridor routes without constraint.However,the funct

44、ioning of CAREC transit routes faces numerous practical limitations,which bring higher transportation costs and extended transit times,trigger inefficiencies among firms,and hamper supply chains.Quantitative research on the measurement of efficiency of transport corridors in CAREC economies is virtu

45、ally absent,which requires a detailed analysis.The development of the CAREC transport corridors has attracted increasing attention for stronger regional cooperation and shared gains to participating countries along the routes.However,extant studies on evaluating the comparative efficiency of CAREC t

46、ransport corridors and the impact of CAREC corridors on RVC participation of countries along the routes are non-existent.Therefore,this study is a modest attempt to analyze the corridor efficiency and impact on RVC participation.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transpor

47、t Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.5 1.2.Problem statement The development of the CAREC corridors is centered on regional cooperation,dialog,participation,and mutual gains to participating economies along t

48、he routes to boost local economic activities and foster their participation in RVCs.However,the CAREC transport corridors face numerous barriers in leveraging trade and the participation of the CAREC economies in RVCs along the routes,which need to improve the efficiency of the transport corridors i

49、n regional economies.There are scant studies on the measurement of the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors focusing on transport connectivity,trade facilitation,border clearance,transit collaboration,and transit operations in transit economies and RVC integration in countries along the route

50、s.Therefore,this study analyzes the comparative efficiencies of the CAREC transport corridors to find the causes of CAREC transport corridor inefficiency,to establish the best performing CAREC transport corridor,and to investigate the impact of the CAREC corridors on the participation of the countri

51、es in RVCs along the routes.This study adds to extant literature from the perspective of both researchers and policymakers.2.Methodology 2.1.Efficiency measurement of CAREC transport corridors The administration of the CAREC transport corridors necessitates the application of suitable decision-makin

52、g techniques to offer sufficient assistance for policy options.This study has applied a highly capable decision-making technique called data envelopment analysis(DEA)to analyze the performance efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors.2.1.1.Variables Landlocked countries have right of entry to and

53、 from the sea(UN-OHRLLS,2013)including open transit via bordering nations through all transport modes,devoid of little constraint(Hummels and Schaur,2013).Virtually,this basic right faced several intricacies in practice and consequently increased transport costs and transit delays(Lowe,1990)and hamp

54、ered RVC integration(World Bank,2013).Djankov,Caroline,and Cong(2010)presented a lucid analysis of transport systems in landlocked developing countries and their reliance on exports.Greater efficiency of transport corridors requires improved trade transit infrastructure and robust trade facilitation

55、 strategy,which can significantly impact transportation and logistics costs and facilitate a smoother transit at border clearance points.Therefore,the enhancement and upkeep of trade transit infrastructure facilities are essential for highly efficient transport corridors and the cooperative use of t

56、ransit facilities(Djankov,Caroline,and Cong,2010).However,scant knowledge exists on the assessment of the CAREC transport corridor efficiency specifically focusing on road transport,border clearance procedures,trade facilitation,and transit practices.The empirical analysis of the efficiency of the C

57、AREC transport corridors is virtually absent,which this study intends to accomplish through the application of DEA.In this study,the selection of variables is based on Djankov,Caroline,and Cong(2010)and used with slight alterations in confirmation to Fanou and Wang(2018)through inclusion of the tota

58、l documents required for export via road transport.In landlocked economies,the outdated and inept customs practices,deficient infrastructure,and lack of reliable transit facilities frequently entail larger transport and trade costs and time delays at border-crossing points.Higher transit cost and ti

59、me delays influence export and obstruct the integration of domestic firms with RVCs.The selected input and output variables include certification prerequisites,customs practices,and administration procedures including time and road transport cost incurred for export along the routes.This study CAREC

60、 Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.6 analyzes CAREC corridor efficiency for the period 2010 to 2020,restricted to road transport and export

61、only.The DEA efficiency analysis employs three inputs and one output.Table 1 shows that chosen inputs are transaction cost(measured in USD per TEU),transit time(measured in days),and number of documents to export via transportation.1 The selected output is volume of exports2 handled by each decision

62、-making unit(DMU),measured in TEUs.Table 1:Indicators and their definitions Indicator Definition Documents to export Quantity of official certificates needed by exporters to collect and present.Therefore,this indicates official difficulties faced by exporters.Increased document requirements simply i

63、mply that exporters spend larger amounts of time and money engaging in trade pursuits.Days to export Number of days needed to fulfil complete official processes linked to export and border procedures and delivering consignment.Smaller official processes point to more ease of export.Cost to export Mo

64、ney cost to export is expressed in USD charged for a 20 foot vessel.Source:Author compilation 2.1.2.Data sources Efficiency calculations have been conducted for six CAREC corridors,called DMUs in DEA,spanning 2010 to 2020 as shown in Table 2.The input data was sourced from the World Bank Business Da

65、tabase,while output data originated from the UN Comtrade database.The Doing Business framework evaluates the time and cost linked to the export and import of standardized goods via transportation.Regarding exports,official procedures encompass everything from packing goods to their exit from the cor

66、ridor,including border clearance procedures.Transport cost and travel time have not been included.Additionally,essential certificates needed for cross-border exports are considered.1This analysis focuses exclusively on road transport,the primary mode of transportation in the context of CAREC countri

67、es.In addition,the data for transaction cost,transit time,and so on by rail and other transportation modes is largely unavailable for most of these countries.2In this paper,the focus is on examining export efficiency only owing to the unavailability of essential input variables required for conducti

68、ng an import efficiency analysis.The specific input variables selected from the World Bank Business Database for export efficiency analysis unfortunately are not available for import analysis,especially across all CAREC countries.Hence,the analysis is limited to examining export efficiency only.CARE

69、C Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.7 Table 2:CAREC corridors and the regions/countries Corridor Countries 1 EuropeEast Asia(Kazakhstan,Kyrg

70、yz Republic,and XUAR)2 MediterraneanEast Asia(Afghanistan,Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,and XUAR)3 Russian FederationMiddle East and South Asia(Georgia,Afghanistan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan)4 Russian FederationEast As

71、ia(IMAR,Mongolia,and XUAR)5 East AsiaMiddle East and South Asia(Afghanistan,Kyrgyz Republic,Pakistan,Tajikistan,and XUAR)6 EuropeMiddle East and South Asia(Afghanistan,Kazakhstan,Pakistan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan)Note:*IMAR:Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region;XUAR=Xinjiang Uygur Autonomou

72、s Region.Both are regions of the Peoples Republic of China.Source:Author compilation 2.1.3.Methodology to estimate efficiency DEA is a linear programming technique that applies several inputs and outputs to analyze the comparative efficiency of identical DMUs.DEA is applied to estimate efficiency in

73、 terms of the proportion of weighted aggregate of outputs to the weighted aggregate of inputs.Absolute efficiency is difficult to capture;this is estimated on assumed fact.Performance efficiency is calculated by linking DMUs to a situation with very similar input and output form.Using the input and

74、output variables,DEA gives an integrated efficiency performance for each DMU,helping to identify efficient DMU and inefficient DMU.Inputs are the resources applied by DMU and outputs are the performance displayed by DMU.The determination of the optimal performing CAREC corridor(specifically ranking

75、as the most effective corridor)is accomplished using the modified DEA technique(Andersen and Petersen,1993),which facilitates the ranking of efficient CAREC corridors by evaluating efficiency scores,and is expressed mathematically as follows:(,)=1=1=1,2.,(1)Subject to:=1=1 1,=1,2.,(2)0,=1,2.,(3)0,=1

76、,2.,(4)Where:hk=relative efficiency of k-th DMU;yrj=quantity of output r generated by DMU j;xij=quantity of input i utilized by DMU j;n=number of DMUs;m=number of inputs;s=number of outputs;CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of th

77、e Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.8 ur=weight assigned to output r;and vi=weight assigned to input i.Equation(1)is solved iteratively n times to gauge the relative efficiency of each DMU.Non-negative constraints in equation(3)and equation(4)are

78、 necessary to ensure that fractional equation(2)attains a value than 0.Consequently,all input and output weights are assumed to be non-zero.Optimization of k-th DMUs efficiency is achieved through resolution of equation(1)and equation(2),resulting in values of k ranges from 0 to 1 and hk=1 signifies

79、 k-th DMUs efficiency in comparison to others,while values 1 indicate inefficiency.When hk tends towards 1,it implies a higher level of efficiency.An alternative approach to address this issue involves utilizing a fractional linear programming model,called a CCR ratio model,and converting it into a

80、linear programming model.The mathematical representation of this DEA model is as follows:(,)=1=1,2.,(5)Subject to:=1=1 (6)=1=1 0,=1,2,.(7)0,=1,2.,(8)Where:yrj=quantity of output r generated by DMU j;xij=quantity of input i to unit j;hk=relative efficiency of unit k;n=number of DMUs under investigati

81、on;m=number of inputs;s=number of outputs;r=weight coefficient of output r;vi =weight coefficient of input i.The k-th DMUs relative efficiency is determined by hk in objective function.If hk=1,DMU k is relatively efficient,while a value|t|V(T)/V(C)Treated Control lRVCs U 3.0599 3.031 6.5 0.79 0.432

82、1.54*M 3.0599 2.985 16.8-158.7 2.6 0.01 1.92*lresource U 2.5043 2.7118-19 -2.29 0.023 1.74*M 2.5043 2.4111 8.5 55.1 1.25 0.21 1.64*lurban U 4.0544 3.9835 19 2.37 0.018 0.97 M 4.0544 4.0758-5.7 69.9-0.96 0.337 1.72*lmarket U 0.51965 0.08371 26.6 3.36 0.001 0.88 M 0.51965 0.45816 3.8 85.9 0.57 0.567 0

83、.98 lcapital U 3.2413 3.1574 25.3 3.3 0.001 0.54*M 3.2413 3.2395 0.5 97.8 0.09 0.925 0.92 lpublic U 2.7631 2.8227-19.4 -2.41 0.016 1.06 M 2.7631 2.7546 2.8 85.7 0.4 0.69 0.94 lopen U 1.0413 0.65003 28.3 3.51 0 1.12 M 1.0413 0.78409 18.6 34.3 2.72 0.007 1.05 Note:*If the variance ratio falls outside

84、0.83;1.21 for U and 0.83;1.21 for M Source:Author estimates Table 8:Test for how well the model fits Sample Ps R2 LR chi2 pchi2 MeanBias MedBias B R Unmatched 0.055 48.35 0 20.6 19.4 56.8*0.96 Matched 0.014 16.77 0.019 8.1 5.7 27.6*0.89 Note:LR=likelihood ratio Source:Author estimates In culmination

85、,the comprehensive findings from the balancing test consistently affirm the efficacy of the matching process.The discernible reduction in biases,alignment of t-values,and decreased values of LR and Ps R2 collectively underscore the validity and reliability of the matching procedure shown in Table 8.

86、This robust balancing lends further confidence to subsequent analyses,fostering more accurate and insightful outcomes.3.3.4.Empirical findings on participation in RVCs Using equation(3),the analysis provides estimates of the impact of the CAREC corridors on participation in RVCs of countries along t

87、he routes.The regression analysis is conducted with the application of cluster-robust standard errors.The comprehensive results of this analysis are displayed in Table 9,alongside estimation outcomes for unmatched data for the purposes of comparison.Columns(1)and(2)within Table 9 delineate outcomes

88、for unmatched data estimation,while the subsequent columns provide regression results for matched data.Specifically,columns(1)and(3)outline baseline outcomes,omitting any control variables,while columns(2)and(4)introduce primary explanatory variables into models presented in columns(1)and(3)respecti

89、vely.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.21 Table 9:Effect of corridors on the RVC participation of countries along the routes Variable

90、DID DID-PSM (1)(2)(3)(4)Treated 0.0015*0.0345*0.0115*0.052*(1.03)(1.65)(2.01)(2.59)Time-0.0745-0.0369-0.0641*-0.054*(-1.26)(-0.53)(-1.82)(-1.59)treated X time 0.0612 0.0779 0.0351*0.0221*(0.83)(1.08)(1.02)(1.14)lopen 0.025*0.0208*(1.94)(2.13)lpublic 0.017 0.0208 (0.28)(0.25)lcapital 0.0698*0.108*(1.

91、3)(2.47)lmarket 0.00136*0.0211*(0.11)(1.06)lurban 0.0193*0.129*(1.27)(2.21)lresource-0.0384*-0.0739*(-2.28)(-2.88)_cons 3.068*2.792*3.069*2.274*(73.47)(7.45)(55.36)(3.99)N 681 681 308 308 R2 0.25 0.18 0.29 0.31 Note:t statistics in parentheses*p0.01,*p0.05,*p0.001 Bootstrapping in DID,and propensity

92、 score weights in DID-PSM Source:Author estimates The coefficient attributed to treatedi,t timei,t captures the impact of the CAREC corridors on the participation in RVCs of countries along specified routes.The results obtained solely through DID approach reveal that coefficients associated with int

93、eraction terms lack statistical significance.However,a noteworthy shift occurs when the DID approach is coupled with the PSM method.This integration yields interaction term coefficients that are not only positive but also statistically significant.This transformation underscores the importance of em

94、ploying the PSM method in conjunction with the DID method,accentuating the need for methodological synergy.The contrasts between results before and after matching underscore the necessity of applying the PSM method as a precursor to the DID method.These outcomes distinctly portray that the introduct

95、ion of the CAREC corridors has indeed led to an enhancement of participation in RVCs of countries along the routes.A noteworthy observation arises when comparing column(3)with column(4),upon incorporating control variables into regression,the effect of the CAREC corridors on the participation of the

96、 CAREC corridors countries in RVCs remains positively significant at a level of 10 percent.However,the significance level has diminished,accompanied by a considerable reduction in coefficient by 0.0130.This decline may potentially be attributed to a mediating role played by one or more control varia

97、bles,influencing the overall effect.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.22 In summary,the empirical results underline the constructive i

98、mpact of the CAREC corridors on the participation in RVCs of countries along the designated routes.The integration of the PSM method with the DID approach enhances the statistical significance of findings,underscoring the intricate relationship between policy,methodological rigor,and influential fac

99、tors.The incorporation of the control variables further enriches the understanding of the CAREC corridors influence,shedding light on potential mediating mechanisms within this complex context.3.3.5.Impact of various factors on RVC participation Several factors,including market size,economic opennes

100、s,material capital,and urbanization,distinctly exhibit a significantly positive influence on the participation of countries within the CAREC corridors in RVCs.The findings illuminate intriguing dynamics associated with these elements.The results underscore the initial point that a growth in market s

101、ize within the CAREC corridor countries leads to a discernible amplification in forward linkages compared to a parallel increase in backward linkages.This asymmetry implies that a larger market size prompts a stronger surge in demand for intermediate goods compared to their supply.Additionally,econo

102、mic liberalization contributes to capital inflows,subsequently bolstering the trade volume of intermediate goods.It is notable that these capital inflows are likely allocated toward vital areas such as infrastructure development and the exploration of natural resources.Remarkably,urbanization emerge

103、s as another factor with a significantly positive impact on the participation of CAREC corridor countries in RVCs.This relationship can be attributed to the substantial role of urbanization as a conduit through which these countries participate in RVCs.The interconnectedness between urbanization and

104、 participation is a compelling narrative within this context.However,the presence of abundant natural resources brings about a notable divergence.While it would be anticipated that such resources could stimulate participation,the findings reveal a highly significant negative influence on RVC partici

105、pation for countries along the CAREC corridor routes.This phenomenon suggests that heavy reliance on natural resource development may hinder active engagement in RVCs,possibly owing to resource-driven economic specialization that diverges from the RVC framework.Interestingly,under the PSM-DID analys

106、is,the significance of this negative impact decreases,implying that countries endowed with natural resources may find participation in the CAREC corridors more appealing.Conversely,the variable of public services does not exhibit significant influence even within the DID-PSM framework.This suggests

107、that,within this analysis,public services do not significantly contribute to the participation in RVCs of countries along the CAREC corridor routes.In conclusion,the empirical results underscore a multifaceted interplay of factors shaping the participation of CAREC corridor countries in RVCs.While c

108、ertain variables such as market size,economic openness,material capital,and urbanization demonstrate positive influences,dynamics surrounding natural resources and public services reveal intricate nuances that warrant deeper exploration.This comprehensive understanding enriches the insights into the

109、 complex relationship between these variables and RVC participation,ultimately contributing to more informed policy considerations.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the R

110、outes in Regional Value Chains.23 3.3.6.Robustness analysis Drawing from an extensive panel dataset spanning from 1990 to 2020,encompassing 22 countries within the CAREC corridors,this study effectively establishes the capacity of the CAREC corridors to amplify the participation of these countries i

111、n RVCs.This assertion is rooted in empirical evidence gleaned from this temporal and geographic scope.To fortify the dependability of research outcomes,this study embarks on a robustness test by transitioning from the standard matching method to the caliper matching approach.This method shares a con

112、ceptual affinity with the previously employed one-to-three matching technique.The rigorous calibration of this new approach unfolds as follows:Initially,the caliper matching method is executed to harmonize samples,adhering to a stringent set of criteria.Subsequently,DID estimation is conducted using

113、 equation(4),based on outcomes of this calibrated matching procedure.It is noteworthy that the regression results derived from this calibrated approach correspond harmoniously with findings obtained from the preceding methodology.However,for the sake of brevity,these congruent outcomes are not expou

114、nded upon within this context.By subjecting the research to this robustness test,the study strengthens the trustworthiness of the conclusions,validating the robustness of the impact of the CAREC corridors on the augmented participation of CAREC corridor countries in RVCs.This meticulous examination

115、underscores the resilience of findings of this study across methodological variations,further reinforcing the significance of the CAREC corridor influence in shaping these economic interactions.4.Conclusion This study analyzed the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors connecting transit ports

116、along routes over 2010 to 2020.Analysis of the performance efficiency draws the following conclusions.Extant research on the application of DEA to estimate the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors is non-existent.Therefore,this study has attempted to fill this knowledge gap.The application of

117、 DEA to measure transport corridor efficiency helps to rank efficient corridors with a target to offer policy options to improve ineffective transport corridors.The study also establishes the origins of inefficiencies such as larger transportation costs/transaction costs/travel time and offers polic

118、y recommendations for enhancing the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors.The study draws significant policy implications to strengthen and foster the performance efficiencies of the CAREC transport corridors for policymakers and regional transport institutions working to develop and implement

119、 transport corridor strategies.This study of the participation of countries in RVCs contributes to knowledge about the significance of the CAREC corridors in enhancing the participation of CAREC corridor countries in RVCs.Analysis reveals the significance of the development of the CAREC corridors an

120、d draws the following implications.This is significant to encourage the countries to vigorously contribute to the development of the CAREC corridors and dynamically integrate into RVCs drawing on their own profuse resources.The CAREC corridor countries along the routes should nurture the penetrable

121、and management capability on infrastructure investment to guarantee that their investments will successfully foster RVC participation.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along th

122、e Routes in Regional Value Chains.24 5.Policy recommendations 5.1.Improving the efficiency of CAREC transport corridors The efficient CAREC transport corridors have stronger execution of both the soft infrastructure and hard infrastructure than the others.The lagging CAREC transport corridors should

123、 initiate holistic reforms of their transportation systems for better performance efficiency.Attaining higher performance and better efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors and transit infrastructures entails tackling not only the physical barriers to trade,but also the administrative barriers.B

124、order-clearance procedures,and the required customs and official documents should be simple,translucent,and harmonized.Novel digital technologies,trade facilitation,and modern customs clearance processes can be instituted with moderate investment to bolster soft infrastructure,which has immense pote

125、ntial to bestow a considerable reduction in transit transport costs and trade transit times.The collaborative engagement in institutional restructuring is needed to remove inefficient trade transit and customs processes for smoother border clearance.Capacity building of the relevant functionaries in

126、 novel customs and legal practices,and shared digital skills are imperative.In this context,regional cooperation in evolving a compatible transportation system for shared benefits cannot be overemphasized.The following corridor-wise recommendations should be implemented to improve the efficiency of

127、the comparatively inefficient CAREC corridors.Corridor 1:The efficiency of customs clearance should be improved to reduce traffic disruption and delays at transit points caused by the physical verification of trucks,which requires a truck scanner system to enable smooth checking.The road cargo costs

128、 along the high-density UrumqiAlmaty route should be reduced to match the low road cargo charges at Corridor 4 along the PRCXUAR route.Containerization in multimodal transport should be implemented to improve operational efficiency,which entails regulatory reforms.The viability of e-carriage of good

129、s by road(e-CMR)should be explored and implemented,which requires digitalization and compatible laws and regulations.Both hard and soft infrastructure need to be developed and strengthened,which requires the capacity building of both technical and logistics manpower.Corridor 2:Ambiguous transit prac

130、tices along Corridor 2 require transparent consignment rules and fees through an official arrangement.The hazard of illegal cross-border trade from Afghanistan causes delays at customs clearance,which should be tackled by instituting the scheme of authorized economic operator(AEO)to shorten time at

131、transit points.Green lanes should be developed to enable the trucks of the firms under AEO to transit border points without delay.Cargos should be given precedence over passenger vehicles to lower transit time at border transit points.High cargo traffic transit points should be made operational with

132、out any halt in functioning to lower the transit time at border clearance points.Corridor 3:The common customs management along the border clearance point should be established to reduce delays incurred by stopping at a neutral region.Alternative shorter routes with improved hard and soft infrastruc

133、tures should be developed from Georgia to Tajikistan via Turkmenistan,instead of Kazakhstan,to achieve cost-efficiency and lower time at transit clearance.Georgia should develop novel transit agreements focusing on lower transit charges with Tajikistan to achieve a cost-efficient transit as the curr

134、ent transit fee is substantially higher compared to that of a consignment from the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan at similar transit points.The Kyrgyz Republic needs substantial investment in cold chain development for steady exports of agricultural and horticultural products during all seasons and

135、efficient transportation.Uzbekistan has magnetized substantial transit cargos,which caused delays at border-crossing points.Therefore,reducing time at CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian C

136、ountries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.25 border-crossing points requires digital scanners to be set up for accelerated scrutiny of consignments,an increase in the number of entrance roads to border-crossing points,and the speedy passing of consignment-designated green lanes.Corridor 4:T

137、he customs clearance procedures along the MongoliaPRC transit points should be improved to minimize delays for perishable items.Corridor 5:Pakistan should execute a single window system for Afghanistan cargo to reducethe halt time at seaports.The reciprocal AEO scheme should be implemented by Pakist

138、an to enhance the efficiency of transit trade with other corridor countries.International road transport(TIR)parks should be established along heavy traffic border-crossing points to lessen delays.Switching to rail transport can lower transport cost and increase the value of agricultural exports.Cor

139、ridor 6:In Tajikistan,the customs guide for TIR consignments should be substituted by digital technologies such as GPS to lower transit cost significantly.Digital stamping and smart scanners should be implemented to manage the transit of illegal consignments and reduce delays at border transit point

140、s.Tajikistan should allocate green lanes and the AEO scheme for Afghanistans agriculture and horticulture consignments to lessen transit time at border-crossings.Turkmenistan should improve the technical and managerial capabilities of officials in modern logistics including supply chains and cold ch

141、ains across transport modes to lower trade cost.Both hard and soft infrastructures at border-crossing points between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan should be modernized and strengthened to reduce delays.A reciprocal AEO scheme should be implemented between bordering countries.Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

142、need to develop cold chains for the cost-effective mobility of agricultural and horticultural products to enable them to maintain reliable exports.5.2.Bolstering the participation in RVCs There are considerable hurdles to be overcome to increase intraregional trade in the CAREC region and the develo

143、pment of RVCs.Industrial policy should be reoriented to boost industrialization in the CAREC countries and tap the potential of domestic manufacturing for greater intraregional trade flows.Increased domestic manufacturing will generate immense gains for local economies.Industrial policy should lever

144、age a contemporary and prospective specialization which an individual country dominates or can potentially develop.This specialization can guarantee that the economy is cost competitive and/or production competitive in a regional and global context owing to strength of resources,technology,skills,wo

145、rkforce,or commendatory industrial strategies that support manufacturing in specific fields.Recognizing and exploiting this specialization can help economies to build specific practical plans for exports.The CAREC countries can manufacture a broad range of modern products because they have a wide va

146、riety of specialized technical knowledge and skills.Greater intricacy in manufacturing generally embraces big value incorporation,which facilitates economies to seize higher manufacturing gains through value chain participation.Moreover,a surge in export products and export diversification can help

147、countries enhance their trade potential with other regional economies.Increased export diversity and greater varieties of manufactured goods also significantly protect firms from distress in certain markets owing to price variations.Besides public investment in the development of industrial infrastr

148、ucture,private investment including FDI should be considerably magnetized for industrial development.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains

149、.26 Regional policy collaboration should be bolstered to accelerate intraregional trade and RVCs by amalgamating relative economic gains among CAREC member countries and increasing expertise in specific components of RVCs for particular goods.Robust trade policy can enhance intraregional trade,bolst

150、er RVCs,and generate economic growth and prosperity in the CAREC member countries.Redesigning the rules of origin can bolster regional trade integration hugely by influencing the preference of intermediate goods applied to manufacture goods.Regional economic cooperation can reduce tariffs for greate

151、r interregional trade;however,RVC integration entails manufacturing across the CAREC member countries.The non-tariff measures(NTMs)can avoid unfair trade practices;however,NTMs should not be applied as a protection measure,which hampers imports.There is a need to foster homogeneous standards and doc

152、umentation across the CAREC region for better compliance.NTMs should also be strictly implemented to avoid their application as tariff barriers.Last,but not the least,the CAREC transport corridor organizations must downsize operational costs to enhance the value of facilities provided by the corrido

153、rs and realize the necessity of functioning corridor efficiency by lowering transport costs and travel time.The bolstering of regional transport and trade infrastructure are essential to boost intraregional trade and RVCs in CAREC member countries.There is a need to simplify and establish complement

154、ary customs procedures,apply digital technologies,robust trade facilitation measures through suitable investors to achieve lower transit times and transport costs.In brief,the CAREC economies should renovate manufacturing and acquire suitable export and investment opportunities.New technologies are

155、calling for manufacturing and RVCs to be transformed.In future,value chains are expected to be regional,which entails firms to relocate their manufacturing closer to demand and increasingly espouse digital technologies.Therefore,the capacity building of logistics and trade professionals should be im

156、plemented to foster stronger integration of firms into RVCs.6.Limitations and future research direction This study encapsulates the efficiency of the CAREC corridors confined to road transport and export only.In future research,analysis of CAREC corridor efficiency should focus on road and rail tran

157、sport as well as exports and imports.The effective use of DEA entails adherence to certain stipulations.DEA does not assume a functional form linking inputs and outputs;however,DEA also has certain drawbacks.It offers results that are notably susceptible to estimation error,captures efficiency compa

158、red to best performance in a particular instance,and may not be applied to measure performance across different situations.DEA captures the comparative efficiency of a DMU and moves very slowly towards absolute efficiency.In DEA,every efficient DMU is allocated a similar mark(1.00),which helps to av

159、oid subsequent ranking.This study used the adjusted DEA technique suggested by Andersen and Petersen(1993)to rank the best performing corridor with a score of 1.00 and super-efficiency score above 1.00.There are two major limitations in using DID and PSM in this research:this study has used a few co

160、untry features as key explanatory variables;therefore,DID has not accounted for additional probable factors.Lastly,the different data sources used in this study have some missing values.Economic development in CAREC corridor economies is considerably heterogeneous,which can have a significant impact

161、 on RVC participation.Therefore,future research should focus on more variables and derive more robust and rich data.New disruptions such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict offer considerable opportunities to the CAREC member countries to participate in RVCs,which need to be explored in futu

162、re research.Future research can explore how reforms in CAREC transport corridors lower trade transit costs and facilitate transformation of the CAREC transport corridors to economic corridors to tap the novel trade opportunities that have emerged in the Eurasian countries.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fe

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175、ng Paper Series,Washington,DC:World Bank.0991-8891151contactcarecinstitute.org 21th Floor,Commercial Building Block 8,Vanke Metropolitan,No.66 Longteng Road,Shuimogou District,Urmuqi,Xinjiang,PRC,830028 +86.991.8891151 kmcarecinstitute.org|www.carecinstitute.org21th Floor,Commercial Building Block 8,Vanke Metropolitan,No.66 Longteng Road,Shuimogou District,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,the Peoples Republic of China