1、 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.FMCG ResilienceHow to navigate through turbulent times and recover volumeDonatien Hanssens Senior Analytical Consultant|International Customer Success AnalyticsSebastiaan Buchholtz Senior Sales Consultant|Ad

2、vanced Analytics Solutions BeNeLuxMay 2024 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2Inflation Private Label10.7%Price increase in 202341.2%Value share 2023Promotions19.6%Promo pressure 2023ResilienceThrive Next normal?Flashback and look forward 202

3、4 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.3FMCG grew in the last two periods Notably driven by Easter period Source:NIQ Belgium RMS ScantrackBelgium FMCG Evolution Periods vs YA-P04 2024 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consume

4、r LLC.All Rights Reserved.4Source:BE RMS ScantrackBE Total FMCG Volume weighted evolution -YTD W18 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.5Source:NIQ Belgium RMS Scantrack Remain cautious on future price increase BE Top 15 brands Key KPIs-YTD W18RankBRANDValue(in M)ValueVolumePrice1(0)JUPILER

5、103.6 1.1%3.0%-1.8%2(0)COKE96.0 0.5%-3.4%4.1%3(0)COKE_ZERO93.1 -1.6%-4.0%2.5%4(0)LAYS62.7 -3.2%-3.2%0.0%5(0)SPA53.2 6.0%8.5%-2.3%6(1)LOTUS41.9 6.2%-0.3%6.5%7(-1)DOUWE_EGBERTS41.4 1.6%1.8%-0.1%8(1)C.DOR40.1 6.0%-1.4%7.5%9(-1)DR.OETKER38.9 0.4%0.5%-0.1%10(1)LIPTON32.8 -1.6%-4.5%3.0%11(4)RED_BULL32.3 1

6、2.9%15.1%-2.0%12(0)ALPRO31.5 -4.6%-2.3%-2.4%13(-3)KNORR31.1 -7.2%2.7%-9.6%14(-1)IGLO30.5 2.1%1.7%0.3%15(1)MILKA28.4 2.9%-4.2%7.3%2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.46.3%Of NB*increased in volume YTD+15.1%in volume sales+6.7%in volume sales in EU(YTD P4)Functional&energy category continue

7、to increase+26.1%in volume sales(in yoghurt,desserts&cream)2X more expansive vs.categoryFunctional high protein products+2.0%in volume sales in pizzas 3.6/unit(avg)Convenience low out of pocket price*BE excl.Lidl-National brands with at least 250K value sales on YTD W18(n=1725)Source:NIQ Belgium RMS

8、 Scantrack(market:total BE)&Global Strategic Planner YTD P4 Red BullDanone HiPRODr.Oetker 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.8Consumers tend to compare the price between productsSource:Shopper Tren

9、ds:Ref.Q132 We have a few questions about your attitudes towards grocery shopping.In general when shopping,to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?Base:All HM/SM shoppers,2022(n=1416),2023(n=1458)57%of shoppers claim to compare the prices of store brands with leading br

10、ands+8pp vs YABelgium-Price increase&PL shares(vs.FMCG)MonthlyShoppers switched to PL Source:NIQ BE RSM scantrack70.2%9 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Of categories where PL gained volume shares on MAT w18 2024.Reflecting upcoming challenges for National Brands 2024 Nielsen Consumer L

11、LC.All Rights Reserved.10Cleaning ProductsCake&Desserts AidsTeas&infusions Milk&Milk drinksSource:NIQ BE RMS Scantrack PL consolidates its shares in categories with a strong presenceBE PL Volume shares evolution vs.categories MAT w/e 05/05/2024 vs.YA73.0%+5.0 pp50.9%+2.1 pp40.5%+2.5 pp77.7%+0.6 pp 2

12、024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Source:NIQ Belgium RMS Advanced Analytics Precision Areas SolutionBE PL Volume Share(Chg.vs.YA)in Milk FY 2023Precision Areas can help you understand regional differences when defining your strategy against PL

13、70%75%80%85%90%95%Volume Share Volume Share Chg.vs.YA 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.12“To a large extend,shoppers have adapted to the new price points,be it by accepting the higher prices or buying alternatives like PL”-1,22-1,16-1,11-1,1

14、2-1,02-1,25-1,2-1,15-1,1-1,05-1-0,95-0,9Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024Regular Price Elasticity-Total FMCG 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.13However,almost half the volume remains impacted by shoppers sensitivity to price changesBe Excl.Lidl EDA Benchmarks total Belgium Price Elast

15、icity buckets by unit sales 2023 vs.Q1 2024Importance of volume sold with low price elasticity has increasedStrong Impact from Shelf price increaseLimited Impact from Shelf price increase1%68%31%Very Elastic-1.75|Inelastic-1.0%of Volume sold in BE at each level of elasticity1%46%54%2023Q1 2024 2024

16、Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.14 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.15Source:NIQ 2024 Consumer Outlook,EuropeShoppers indicate that buying brands on promotion is their#1 combat strategy against inflation40%33%33%33%31%29%28%25%21%19%Buy whatever brand is on promotion Switch to

17、a lower priced option Monitor the cost of my overall basket ofgoods Shop more often at discount/value/lower-priced stores Opt for private label/store brands Stocking up or buying in bulk when mypreferred brand goes on sale or promotion Stop buying certain products to focus juston essentials Shop at

18、stores with loyalty points/useloyalty points to manage spend Substitute or trade-out for a lower pricedalternative(eg.A different cut of meat)Buy larger sizes93%of European consumers have changed how they have shopped for FMCG in order to manage expensesTop 10 consumer saving strategies for FMCG Eur

19、ope 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.16Source:NIQ BE RMS ScantrackBut less compared to our neighbours With an increase of 0.7pp vs.YTD YAThe business increasingly relies upon promo19.2Source:Global Strategic Planner YTD P3 Importance of sale

20、s under promo(in value).EU(excl.Belarus Sweden&UK)BE-Importance of sales under promo(value)Yearly&YTD W18 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.28.9%Of National Brands*had an increase in promo volume and TDP promo,and volume shares Brands leverage promotion to grow volumesInvestment notably

21、in feature+0.9%in volume shares in torrefied coffee54.6%of activities under featureInvestment notably in feature+0.5%in volume shares in toothpaste69.8%of activities under featureInvestment in price reduction and more aggressive+0.7%in volume shares in yoghurt/fermented milk non drink(avg)discount 1

22、5.7%to 22.8%*BE excl.Lidl-National brands with at least 250K(n=1725)value sales on YTD W18Source:NIQ Belgium RMS ScantrackBE excl.Lidl Brands Volume shares evolution&promo weight YTD W18Investment in feature&display+0.6%in volume shares in pasta46.1%of activities under feature D.EColgateBarillaDanon

23、e Oikos 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.18-14.3%decline in promotion efficiency vs 2022Belgium Total Food excl.Lidl-Trade Uplift by price discount for Feature&Display promotions EDA Model Promo UpliftPromotion incrementality is yet to further recoverEfficiency(net promo incrementality,

24、ROI)1091381762273009511915019024794119151194255-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%Display&Feature Trade Lift-by price discount Y2022Y2023Q1 2024 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.-0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 0,80(3,50)(3,00)(2,50)(2,00)(1,50)(1,00)(0,50)-Promo Value SharePromo Price Elasticity19

25、Belgium Excl.Aldi/Lidl Product Segments Promoted Price Elasticity vs.Promo Value Share YTD Q1 2024Promo price sensitive categories are not always promoted in the most efficient mannerWine/ChampagneGround CoffeeWhiskey/Gin/Tequilla/BittersSeafoodEdible OilsMeat ProductsDried FruitsLaundry detergentsA

26、uto dishwasher detergentChocolate noveltiesBaby diapersSun protectionHealth SupplementsToothbrushes38 categories/400M22 categories/209M 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.20What can we expect?20 20

27、23 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.21Source:Eurostat HICP Food vs.Producer price in food index some months are estimated and/or provisional data.And consumers can expect further price increase in the near future Consumers underwent a lower inflation than producersHCIP Food vs.Producer Price

28、 Food index Monthly 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.22Expect a markup in the near futureAs the inflation is usually delayedSource:NIQ&Eurostat(HICP estimated for April 2024)HICP&FMCG price Annual rate of change Monthly 2024 Nielsen Consumer

29、 LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2333%of European consumers believe their household situation will be worseSource:NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024,EuropeWhere do you believe your household finance situation will be by the end of 2024 compared to today?2024 Nielsen Cons

30、umer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.24Source:NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024And geo-political issues start to take a pre-dominant position Prices remain top of mind for consumersTop 10 concerns among consumers1Rising food prices 37%2Increasing utilities25%3Global con

31、flict/crisis escalation18%4Economic downturn14%5Global warming/environment11%6Rising fuel/transportation costs10%7Increased housing costs10%8Personal welfare/happiness10%9Immigration10%10Political unrest8%=sameWas#4samewas#3samewas#5was#10was#6Ranking change vs.Mid 2023was#9was#11=2024 Nielsen Consu

32、mer LLC.All Rights Reserved.25With the NIQ&GfK combination,we deliver The Full View Foundation:NIQ proprietary retail measurement and consumer panel data assetsKnowthe consumerPut people at the heart of your strategy.Target and position to drive growth.Consumer InsightsCBuild an irresistible brandDe

33、velop and track brand strategies that drive purchase&premium pricing and deliver powerful experiences.Brand and Customer ExperienceEnhance marketing effectivenessCapture and retain audience attention with impactful campaigns.Pair your creative with an optimal media-mix to reach your sales or brand o

34、bjectives.AdvertisingWin inretailDrive sales at the point of purchaseby understanding shoppers.Optimize your retail strategy.Shopper and Retail InsightsPrice strategicallywith confidenceLeverage granular data toensure the right pricing andpromotional strategies.Pricing and Revenue ManagementMaximize

35、 return on innovationAccelerate success bytesting and refining your product innovations.Forecast and activate your innovations.InnovationC 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.26Delivering value to key retailer and manufacturer needsNIQ solutions portfolioRoute-to-marketEvaluate opportuniti

36、es to increase sales and quantify the impact of potential outputs,media,and in-store actions at the local level,based on geographic and demographic composition.Operations and supply chainMaintain sales by quickly identifying out-of-stock risks and reducing supply chain disruptions.BASES product offe

37、r managementFuel growth and accelerate time-to-market by testing,refining,and reinventing with highly predictive,market-tested consumer insights.Market performance measurementTrack sales and share performance and understand drivers across in-store,e-commerce,and omnichannel to identify trends and un

38、derstand competitive and category performance.Consumer and shopper insightsUnderstand consumer and shopper behavior,demographics,and loyalty with modern,managed consumer panels and custom survey capabilities.Revenue growth managementMaximize profitability,eliminate wasteful trade spend,and ensure th

39、e right price and promotion strategy with more granular data and precise recommendations.Assortment and merchandisingSimplify planning,drive better performance,and create sustainable growth by improving the way you characterize,organize,and visualize your shelf.Marketing,media,and personalized offer

40、sCreate the best shopping experiences for your consumers through personalization and digitization while increasing discoverability.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Key insights and what can you expect?Consumers adaptationShoppers changed their habits and will most likely not come back t

41、o their pre-covid behaviourPrice Price is the main concern for shoppers.Constrain price increase,and consider the price elasticityLooking forwardExpect price markup in the coming months and adapt your strategy accordingly FMCG Resilience Volume:+0.5%#NB increasing in volume:46.3%PromotionPromo volum

42、e:+6.3%(YTD W18)Mechanisms&aggressiveness should be well balancedAdapt strategy Attract shoppers by adapting your strategy&ensure to have the Full View on what is happening on the market27 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.28We believe 2024-25 opens a unique opportunity for FMCGs to doub

43、le down on RGM to boost performancePRICE:new price tiers and new price points have emerged in every categoryAdapt a nimble pricing strategy-faster quicker strategy development for brands and pack-sizes to meet emerging price tiers and price pointsConstantly defend how each item attracts a need state

44、,use case,and grows the categoryEvaluate and invest in trade events that drive most incremental sales growth and ROI for the retailer and manufacturers.PROMOTION:shoppers look to buy on deal to save money,promotion volume have increased accordinglyASSORTMENT:product mix simplification has been strea

45、mlined,retailers have retaliated with delisting against price rises 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.We deliver understanding and insights that make up the Full View.WHAT IS HAPPENINGWhat consumers do and buyWHY ITS HAPPENINGWhat consumers think and feelWHAT TO DO ABOUT ITHow to capital

46、ize on opportunities&mitigate risks29 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.The Full View30The Full View on non-alcoholic beverages in Belgium+0.6%in volume sales vs.YA(YTDW18)Advanced Analytics-1.3Average elasticity for non-alc.beverages Q1 2024 EDA benchmarksFox Intelligence45.0%Of e-comme

47、rce value shares for non-alc.beverages at Colruyt in March 2024 BASES Innovations services3.0%Contribution of innovation to non-alcoholic beveragesCGA by NIQ+39%Weekly drinks penetration in HoReCa BelgiumCMI GfK An NIQ Company25.1%Of respondents indicated that they take a snack or something to drink

48、/eat when leaving homeSourcesAAC:EDA Benchmark Q1 2024FoxIntelligence:exported 03/05/2024 non-alcoholic beverages-Q1 2024 n=2672 NIQ Bases:NIQ BASES Innovation Management-Flavoured drinks carbonated juice&drink,non-carbonated,sports&energy,water Latest 52weeks w/e 24/03/2024 vs.YA CGA by NIQ:Belgium

49、 OPUS Lite(n=491)“How often do you visit the on-premise for drinks?”GfK A NIQ Company:Consumer Life(BE,2023)2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.We are the worlds consumer intelligence company.31 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Thank you 32Donatien H Sebastiaan BuchholtzSebastiaan.B