1、最新修改增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。原先的估值對應FCFF估值。其他估值模型有些數是鏈接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全更改了自由現金流定義EBIT（1-所得稅率）折舊資本支出非現金性流動資本變化預測前首先需要自己輸入的數據3主營收入及成本：各公司收入及成本的預測方法不盡相同，需要分析師自己做4預測假設：各種假設條件5固定資產預測：歷史折舊和攤銷7損益表及利潤分配：2003-2004A利潤數據8資產負債表：2003-2004歷史數據7損益表及利潤分配、8資產負債表：無公式的單元格需要手動填入，如一些特殊會計科目DCF估值（FCFF）：分析日期、股本結

2、構，假設條件中的“第二階段增長率、長期增長率、應付債券利率、”。注意：第二階段(2010-2017)年數不可更改。其他估值模型：各假設條件（第二階段年數也不可更改）11輸出結果：2003-2004年經營活動現金流量、投資活動現金流量、融資活動現金流量增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。原先的估值對應FCFF估值。其他估值模型有些數是鏈接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全DCF估值（FCFF）：分析日期、股本結構，假設條件中的“第二階段增長率、長期增長率、應付債券利率、”。注意：第二階段(2010-2017)年數不可更改。估估值值過過程程中中所所用用的的固固定定

3、參參數數參參數數數數值值無風險利率Rf5.00%平均風險股票必要報酬率Rm11.00%一般情景預測歷史數據區名名稱稱20022003產產品品分分產產品品收收入入尿素收入32,261.0832,356.92DMF收入5,800.3724,055.91甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品收入7,048.498,786.03醋酸收入尿素收入增長率0.30%DMF收入增長率314.73%甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品收入增長率24.65%醋酸收入增長率分分產產品品價價格格市場尿素月均價1,261.001,384.00市場DMF月均價市場甲醇月均價1,842.002,396.00醋酸月均價尿素價格上漲幅度9.75%D

4、MF價格上漲幅度#DIV/0!甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等價格上漲幅度30.08%醋酸價格上漲幅度分分產產品品產產量量尿素產量增長率-8.62%DMF產量增長率#DIV/0!甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品等化工品產量增長率-4.17%醋酸產量增長率0.00尿素產量DMF產量甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品等化工品產量醋酸產量主主要要產產品品收收入入合合計計（萬萬元元）45,109.9465,198.86其它產品收入（萬元）0.000.00其它產品占主營收入比例0.00%0.00%主主營營業業務務收收入入（萬萬元元）45,11065,199調調整整比比例例0.00%0.00%主主營營業業務務收收入入（萬萬元元）調

5、調整整后后45,11065,199主營收入增長率%44.5%主主營營業業務務成成本本預預測測20022003尿素利潤6,969.755,923.59DMF利潤1473.165494.36甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品利潤838.852,218.79醋酸利潤尿素毛利率21.60%18.31%DMF毛利率25.40%22.84%甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品毛利率11.90%25.25%醋酸毛利率主營業務利潤9281.7613636.74主營業務利潤增長率46.92%主主營營業業務務毛毛利利率率20.58%20.92%子公司收入預測并并表表子子公公司司股股權權比比例例20022003子公司利潤預測并并表表

6、子子公公司司股股權權比比例例20022003合合計計少少數數股股東東權權益益調調整整后后少少數數股股東東權權益益顯性期預測200420052006E2007E2008E2009E44,671.0366,824.0099,801.64109,033.30137,763.57157,050.4740,632.0945,839.0075,634.35104,224.13114,646.55108,914.2214,044.4422,559.0023,574.1629,467.6932,414.4632,414.4636,000.00111,600.0038.06%49.59%49.35%9.25%2

7、6.35%14.00%68.91%12.81%65.00%37.80%10.00%-5.00%59.85%60.63%4.50%25.00%10.00%0.00%1,653.001,855.721,911.391,815.821,725.031,638.780.000.000.000.000.002,800.003,904.323,709.103,709.103,709.103,709.106,000.006,200.0019.44%12.26%3.00%-5.00%-5.00%-5.00%#DIV/0!-13.22%10.00%6.00%0.00%-5.00%16.86%39.44%-5.0

8、0%0.00%0.00%0.00%15.59%33.25%45.00%15.00%33.00%20.00%#DIV/0!30.00%50.00%30.00%10.00%0.00%36.79%15.19%10.00%25.00%10.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.006.0018.0099,347.56135,222.00199,010.15242,725.12320,824.58409,979.150.000.000.000.000.000.000.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%99,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,

9、9790.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%99,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,97952.4%36.1%47.2%22.0%32.2%27.8%200420052006E2007E2008E2009E8,669.1013,749.0021,332.5423,305.8129,446.8833,569.459652.256883.0015210.0724758.6927234.5624579.192,529.404,762.004,976.295,307.125,837.845,837.840.008,551.8925,185.30

10、19.41%20.57%21.37%21.37%21.37%21.37%23.76%15.02%20.11%23.76%23.76%22.57%18.01%21.11%21.11%18.01%18.01%18.01%23.76%23.76%22.57%20850.7525394.0041518.9053371.6271071.1789171.7852.90%21.79%63.50%28.55%33.16%25.47%20.77%18.78%20.86%21.99%22.15%21.75%20042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E20042005E2006E2007E2008E2

11、009E一般情景預測1 1、經經營營活活動動2003200420052006E2007E主營業務收入同比增長率44.53%52.38%36.11%47.17%21.97%主營業務成本/主營業務收入79.08%79.23%81.22%79.14%78.01%主營業務稅金及附加/主營業務收入（營業稅率）0.50%0.55%0.49%0.49%0.49%營業費用/主營業務收入1.12%1.47%1.41%1.41%1.41%管理費用/主營業務收入3.22%2.49%1.94%1.94%1.94%實際稅率23.95%17.16%19.63%19.63%19.63%股利分配比例25.44%19.86%9

12、.51%9.51%9.51%2 2、營營運運資資金金2003200420052006E2007E貨幣資金/主營業務收入49.67%34.84%27.05%27.05%27.05%應收帳款周轉天數(相對于主營業務收入)0.010.000.000.000.00應收票據周轉天數(相對于主營業務收入)6.381.665.055.055.05存貨周轉天數(相對于主營業務成本)38.2247.4248.1848.1848.18應付票據周轉天數(相對于主營業務成本)0.000.009.119.119.11應付帳款周轉天數(相對于主營業務成本)39.31116.7245.4645.4645.46預付帳款增加

13、/主營業務成本2.29%-0.60%1.16%1.16%1.16%待攤費用增加 /營業費用和管理費用-0.13%0.03%2.06%2.06%2.06%預收帳款(負債)增加 /主營業務收入1.62%0.91%3.33%3.33%3.33%預提費用增加/營業費用和管理費用0.00%0.00%0.49%0.49%0.49%其他流動資產增加/主營業務收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他流動負債增加/主營業務收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他長期資產增加/主營業務收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他長期負債增加/主營業務收

14、入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%壞帳準備/應收帳款0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%短期投資跌價準備#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%0.00%存貨跌價準備(含工程虧損準備)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%長期投資減值準備#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%0.00%固定資產減值準備0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%在建工程減值準備0.00%#DIV/0!0.00%0.00%0.00%3 3、資資本本性性投投資資a、假定固定資產采用直直線線法法折舊b、現有固定資產和新建固定資產的折舊年限

15、平均為12年殘值率為5.00%年折舊率=7.92%c、各年的固定資產投資如下：2003200320042004200520052006E2006E2007E2007E55,760.3160,852.5051,739.0060,000.0030,000.004、債債務務和和利利息息2003200420052006E2007Ea、最低貨幣資金為主營業務收入的34.84%b、銀行長期貸款利率為6.00%c、現金不足時增加短期貸款，利率為5.50%d、現金存款利率為1.35%預計銀行長期貸款增加額（萬元）42,700.0049,400.0032,333.0020,000.00(40,000.00)20

16、08E2009E32.18%27.79%77.85%78.25%0.49%0.49%1.41%1.41%1.94%1.94%19.63%19.63%9.51%9.51%2008E2009E27.05%27.05%0.000.005.055.0548.1848.189.119.1145.4645.461.16%1.16%2.06%2.06%3.33%3.33%0.49%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2008E2008E

17、2009E2009E3,000.003,000.002008E2009E(35,000.00)(35,000.00)經經營營情情景景分分析析情情景景選選擇擇2 2一一般般情情景景預預測測會會計計年年度度截截止止日日：12/3112/312005E2006E1銷售收入增長率36.11%47.17%2銷貨成本/銷售收入81.22%79.14%3管理費用/銷售收入1.94%1.94%營業費用/銷售收入1.41%1.41%股利分配比例9.51%9.51%1 1樂樂觀觀情情景景預預測測銷售收入增長率39.72%51.89%銷貨成本/銷售收入79.60%77.55%管理費用/銷售收入1.84%1.84%營

18、業費用/銷售收入1.34%1.34%股利分配比例14.51%14.51%2 2一一般般情情景景預預測測銷售收入增長率36.11%47.17%銷貨成本/銷售收入81.22%79.14%管理費用/銷售收入1.94%1.94%營業費用/銷售收入1.41%1.41%股利分配比例9.51%9.51%3 3保保守守情情景景預預測測銷售收入增長率32.50%42.46%銷貨成本/銷售收入82.84%80.72%管理費用/銷售收入2.03%2.03%營業費用/銷售收入1.48%1.48%股利分配比例4.51%4.51%2007E2008E2009E21.97%32.2%27.79%78.01%77.8%78.

19、25%1.94%1.9%1.94%1.41%1.4%1.41%9.51%9.5%9.51%24.16%35.39%30.57%76.45%76.29%76.68%1.84%1.84%1.84%1.34%1.34%1.34%14.51%14.51%14.51%21.97%32.18%27.79%78.01%77.85%78.25%1.94%1.94%1.94%1.41%1.41%1.41%9.51%9.51%9.51%19.77%28.96%25.01%79.57%79.40%79.81%2.03%2.03%2.03%1.48%1.48%1.48%4.51%4.51%4.51%歷歷史史折折舊舊：

20、200220032004固固定定資資產產折折舊舊原值72,321.7875,494.11224,525.01折舊3,422.505,488.04折舊率0.00%4.53%2.44%假假設設：現有固定資產的折舊年限/折舊率7.92%使使用用直直線線折折舊舊法法新建固定資產的折舊年限/折舊率6.00%20052006E2007E2008E2009E初始固定資產原值224,52517,774.9017,774.9017,774.9017,774.9017,774.902005固定資產投資+在建工程轉44,2392,654.342,654.342,654.342,654.342,654.342006固

21、定資產投資+在建工程轉60,7503,645.003,645.003,645.003,645.002007固定資產投資+在建工程轉31,8751,912.501,912.501,912.502008固定資產投資+在建工程轉3,938236.25236.252009固定資產投資+在建工程轉3,469208.13在建工程期初余額0.007,500.006,750.004,875.003,937.50新增工程物資0.000.000.000.000.00新增在建工程15,000.006,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00轉固定資產7,500.006,750.004,875.0

22、03,937.503,468.75在建工程期末余額7,500.006,750.004,875.003,937.503,468.75期初固定資產合計189,218.01220,527.77256,453.54260,466.80237,243.81+固定資產投資51,739.0060,000.0030,000.003,000.003,000.00折舊20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11固定資產減值準備0.000.000.000.000.00期期末末固固定定資資產產合合計計220,527.77256,453.54260,466.80237,24

23、3.81213,812.70無無形形資資產產投投資資和和折折舊舊歷歷史史攤攤銷銷：200220032004攤銷假假設設：不考慮無形資產增加，無形資產采用直線法攤銷，攤銷年限10 年20042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E期初無形資產凈值0.000.000.000.000.00攤銷0.000.000.000.000.00期末無形資產凈值0.000.000.000.000.000.00一般情景預測利利潤潤表表（單單位位：萬萬元元）歷史數據區顯性期預測會計年度截止日：12/3120022003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E主主營營業業務務收收入入45,11

24、065,19999,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,979增增長長率率44.5%52.4%36.1%47.2%22.0%32.2%27.8%減：折扣與折讓主主營營業業務務收收入入凈凈額額45,11065,19999,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,979減：主營業務成本35,82851,56278,710109,162157,491189,354249,753320,807主營業務稅金及附加2743275496669801,1951,5802,019主主營營業業務務利利潤潤9,00813,31020,08925,394

25、40,53952,17669,49187,153毛毛利利率率20.6%20.9%20.8%19.3%20.9%22.0%22.2%21.8%加：其他業務利潤226.26119.3872.7912.00150.00200.00200.00200.00減：存貨跌價損失0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00營業費用414.57731.761,460.751,902.002,799.233,414.114,512.645,766.67管理費用2,627.692,102.052,471.252,620.003,855.934,702.936,216.157,943.57利息費用

26、7,661.398,975.988,616.626,366.623,805.98利息收入480.51623.80820.091,041.031,534.13匯兌損益(收益為正)其他0.000.000.000.000.00財務費用782.48810.47939.56633.891,805.181,249.54(1,221.41)2,271.85營營業業利利潤潤5,409.949,784.9015,289.8220,250.1132,228.3943,009.5660,183.6571,370.45加：投資收益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00加：期貨收益0.000.

27、000.000.000.000.000.000.00補貼收入802.87859.631.201,439.00600.000.000.000.00營業外收入23.3629.3638.68203.0050.0050.0050.0050.00減：營業外支出93.05317.94103.4150.0080.0080.0080.0080.00加：以前年度損益調整稅稅前前利利潤潤6,143.1210,355.9515,226.2921,842.1132,798.3942,979.5660,153.6571,340.45減：所得稅1,533.672,479.922,612.624,287.006,437.4

28、18,435.6911,806.4914,002.15實際稅率25.0%23.9%17.2%19.6%19.6%19.6%19.6%19.6%加：財政返還減：少數股東損益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00加：未確認的投資損失減：購并利潤凈凈利利潤潤4,609.457,876.0312,613.6717,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30銷銷售售凈凈利利率率10.2%12.1%12.7%13.0%13.2%14.2%15.1%14.0%凈凈利利潤潤增增長長率率70.9%60.2%39.2%50.2%31.0%40.0

29、%18.6%發行在外股份數量(萬股）16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,050.0025,050.0033,050.0033,050.0033,050.00EPSEPS0.2760.4720.7550.7011.0521.0451.4631.735EPS增增長長率率70.9%60.2%-7.2%50.2%-0.7%40.0%18.6%股股利利2,004.002,004.002,505.001,670.002,507.693,286.124,599.225,454.53期期初初未未分分配配利利潤潤0.003,906.188,596.8116,813.0030,065.11

30、49,964.2576,040.42112,536.29提提取取法法定定盈盈余余公公積積460.92787.601,261.371,755.002,636.103,454.394,834.725,733.83提提取取法法定定公公益益金金230.46393.80630.68878.001,318.051,727.192,417.362,866.92提提取取任任意意盈盈余余公公積積0.000.000.00期期末末未未分分配配利利潤潤1,914.078,596.8116,813.4330,065.1149,964.2576,040.42112,536.29155,819.31一般情景預測資資產產負負

31、債債表表（萬萬元元）歷史數據區顯性期預測會計年度截止日：12/3120022003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E資產貨幣資金21,798.0132,383.1334,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83138,707.47短期投資0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00減：短期投資跌價準備短期投資0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00應收票據384.001,139.13453.061,872.002,755.083,360.264,441.465,675.71應收股利0.

32、000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00應收利息0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00應收帳款679.492.410.000.000.000.000.000.00其他應收款78.87204.3492.9446.0067.7082.57109.14139.47減：壞帳準備應收帳款凈額758.36206.7592.9446.0067.7082.57109.14139.47預付帳款3,151.864,334.363,862.665,127.006,951.109,144.2412,036.9415,752.61應收補貼款0.000.000.00存貨3,7

33、81.435,399.4410,226.1214,408.0020,786.8524,992.2632,964.2842,342.51其中:工程施工減：存貨跌價準備(含工程虧損準備)0.000.000.000.000.000.00存貨凈額3,781.435,399.4410,226.1214,408.0020,786.8524,992.2632,964.2842,342.51待攤費用19.2915.5916.91110.00247.00414.10634.96917.20待處理流動資產凈損失一年內到期的長期債券投資期貨保證金0.000.000.000.00319.59319.59319.593

34、19.59其他流動資產0.000.000.000.000.00流流動動資資產產總總額額29,892.9543,478.4049,261.1558,140.0086,965.25103,969.18139,077.22203,854.55長期股權投資0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00長期債權投資長期投資合計0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00減：長期投資減值準備長長期期投投資資凈凈額額0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00其中：合并價差0.000.000.00股權投資差額固定資產原值72,321.7875,494

35、.11224,525.01233,788.00294,538.00326,413.00330,350.50333,819.25減：累計折舊28,611.9732,034.4737,522.5152,013.0076,087.24102,073.97128,296.96154,728.07固定資產凈值43,709.8143,459.64187,002.50181,775.00218,450.76224,339.03202,053.54179,091.18減：固定資產減值準備0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00固定資產凈額43,709.8143,459.64187,00

36、2.50181,775.00218,450.76224,339.03202,053.54179,091.18工程物資11,362.6724,857.862,215.5122,415.0022,415.0022,415.0022,415.0022,415.00在建工程4,701.5548,439.930.0014,050.006,750.004,875.003,937.503,468.75減：在建工程減值準備固定資產清理0.00待處理固定資產凈損失固固定定資資產產合合計計59,774.03116,757.43189,218.01218,240.00247,615.76251,629.03228,

37、406.04204,974.93無形資產0.0030.100.000.000.000.000.000.00遞延資產開辦費長期待攤費用0.000.000.000.00482.00355.00228.00101.00其他長期資產0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00其中：臨時設施凈值無無形形資資產產及及其其他他資資產產合合計計0.0030.100.000.00482.00355.00228.00101.00遞延稅款借項資資產產總總額額89,666.98160,265.93238,479.16276,380.00335,063.01355,953.21367,711.264

38、08,930.48負債和股東權益循循環環貸貸款款9,500.007,500.007,000.008,000.000.0016,750.660.000.00應付票據0.000.000.002,726.003,932.884,728.556,236.868,011.22應付帳款6,211.315,630.2725,520.6613,785.0019,615.5923,584.0431,106.8739,956.67預收帳款(負債)3,401.524,454.575,358.659,859.0016,482.3024,560.4835,237.9048,882.50代銷商品款應付工資0.000.00

39、0.000.00150.00150.00150.00150.00應付福利1,194.121,351.991,580.241,575.001,600.001,600.001,600.001,600.00應付股利1,860.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00應交稅金(252.51)(181.86)(1,145.33)(341.00)3,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00其他應交款3.076.5425.0322.00150.00150.00150.00150.00其他應付款434.16581.65461.18601.0015,000.0015,00

40、0.0015,000.0015,000.00預提費用0.000.000.0022.0054.3893.87146.06212.77其他流動負債0.000.000.000.000.00一年內到期的長期負債0.000.004,600.000.000.000.000.000.00流流動動負負債債22,351.6719,343.1643,400.4336,249.0059,985.1489,617.6092,627.70116,963.16長期銀行貸款11,500.0054,200.00103,600.00135,933.00155,933.00115,933.0080,933.0045,933.00

41、應付債券0.000.000.000.000.00長期應付款0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00專項應付款0.0023,045.0017,667.4311,835.009,478.589,478.589,478.589,478.58住房周轉金其他長期負債0.000.000.000.000.00長長期期負負債債合合計計11,500.0077,245.00121,267.43147,768.00165,411.58125,411.5890,411.5855,411.58遞延稅款貸項0.000.000.000.00負負債債總總額額33,851.6796,588.16164,

42、667.86184,017.00225,396.72215,029.18183,039.28172,374.74少數股東權益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00股本16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,050.0025,050.0033,050.0033,050.0033,050.00減：已歸還投資股本凈額16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.00資本公積金35,676.0735,676.0735,701.0530,018.0030,018.0

43、030,018.0030,018.0030,018.00其中：補充流動資本盈余公積金1,525.422,704.774,596.827,230.0011,184.1516,365.7323,617.8032,218.55其中：公益金508.47901.591,532.272,410.00未確認的投資損失0.000.000.000.000.00未分配利潤1,913.828,596.8116,813.4330,065.0049,964.2576,040.42112,536.29155,819.31外幣報表折算差額資本匯差調整股股東東權權益益合合計計55,815.3163,677.6573,811.

44、3092,363.00116,216.40147,474.15191,222.09243,105.86負負債債和和股股東東權權益益89,666.98160,265.81238,479.16276,380.00341,613.13362,503.32374,261.37415,480.60檢檢查查0.000.120.000.00(6,550.11)(6,550.11)(6,550.11)(6,550.11)資資產產負負債債率率37.75%60.27%69.05%66.58%65.98%59.32%48.91%41.49%一般情景預測現現金金流流量量表表 （單單位位：萬萬元元）歷史數據區顯性區預測

45、會計年度截止日：12/3120042005E2006E2007E2008E2008E2009E2009E經經營營活活動動產產生生的的現現金金流流量量稅稅后后利利潤潤17,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30加加:少數股東損益0.000.000.000.000.00處置固定、無形資產和其他長期資產的損失0.000.000.000.000.00固定資產報廢損失財務費用633.891,805.181,249.54(1,221.41)2,271.85投資損失(減:收益)0.000.000.000.000.00折舊和攤銷20,429.2424,074.24

46、25,986.7426,222.9926,431.11壞帳準備0.000.000.000.000.00短期投資跌價準備0.000.000.000.000.00存貨跌價準備（含工程虧損準備）0.000.000.000.000.00長期投資減值準備0.000.000.000.000.00固定資產減值準備0.000.000.000.000.00在建工程減值準備0.000.000.000.000.00營營運運資資金金的的變變動動應收票據的減少/(增加)(1,418.94)(883.08)(605.19)(1,081.20)(1,234.25)應收股利的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.

47、00應收利息的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00應收帳款的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00其他應收款的減少/(增加)46.94(21.70)(14.87)(26.57)(30.33)預付帳款的減少/(增加)(1,264.34)(1,824.10)(2,193.14)(2,892.70)(3,715.67)應收補貼款的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00存貨的減少/(增加)(4,181.88)(6,378.85)(4,205.41)(7,972.02)(9,378.22)待攤費用的減少/(增加)(93.09)(137.00)(167.1

48、0)(220.86)(282.24)期貨保證金的減少/(增加)0.00(319.59)0.000.000.00其他流動資產的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00長期待攤費用的減少/(增加)0.00(482.00)127.00127.00127.00其他長期資產的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00遞延稅款借項的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00應付票據的增加/(減少)2,726.001,206.88795.671,508.311,774.36應付帳款的增加/(減少)(11,735.66)5,830.593,968.457,522.838,

49、849.79預收帳款(負債)的增加/(減少)4,500.356,623.308,078.1810,677.4313,644.60代銷商品款的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00應付工資的增加/(減少)0.00150.000.000.000.00應付福利的增加/(減少)(5.24)25.000.000.000.00應付股利的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00應交稅金的增加/(減少)804.333,341.000.000.000.00其他應交款的增加/(減少)(3.03)128.000.000.000.00其他應付款的增加/(減少)139.8214,399.0

50、00.000.000.00預提費用的增加/(減少)22.0032.3839.4952.2066.70其他流動負債的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00長期應付款的增加/(減少)(5,832.43)(2,356.42)0.000.000.00其他長期負債的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00一年內到期長期負債的增加/(減少)(4,600.00)0.000.000.000.00應付債券的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00遞延稅款貸項的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00經經營營活活動動的的現現金金流流量量17,723.077

51、1,573.8067,603.2381,043.1495,863.02投投資資活活動動的的現現金金流流量量短期投資0.000.000.000.000.00長期投資0.000.000.000.000.00未確認的投資損失0.000.000.000.000.00投資收益0.000.000.000.000.00固定資產投資(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00)投投資資活活動動的的現現金金流流(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00)融融資資活活動動產產生生的的現現金金流

52、流量量長期貸款的增加/(減少)32,333.0020,000.00(40,000.00)(35,000.00)(35,000.00)股利分配(1,670.00)(2,507.69)(3,286.12)(4,599.22)(5,454.53)財務費用(633.89)(1,805.18)(1,249.54)1,221.41(2,271.85)股份發行8,350.000.000.000.000.00資本公積金的增加/(減少)(5,683.05)0.000.000.000.00計入循環貸款前融資活動產生的現金流量32,696.0615,687.13(44,535.66)(38,377.81)(42,7

53、26.39)循環貸款的增加(減少)3,287.41(8,000.00)16,750.66(16,750.66)0.00融融資資活活動動的的現現金金流流35,983.477,687.13(27,785.00)(55,128.46)(42,726.39)現現金金凈凈變變動動1,967.5419,260.939,818.2322,914.6850,136.63期期初初現現金金余余額額34,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83期期末末現現金金余余額額36,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83138,707.47自自由由現現金

54、金流流量量(此此行行數數據據未未用用)(34,015.93)11,573.8037,603.2378,043.1492,863.02公公司司自自由由現現金金流流FCFFEBIT20,884.0034,033.5744,259.1058,962.2473,642.30稅率19.63%19.63%19.63%19.63%19.63%EBIT*(1-稅率)16,785.0527,353.7335,572.2747,389.5959,188.36加：折舊20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11減：資本支出55,283.6656,288.4229,873

55、.002,873.002,873.00減：非現金性流動資本的增加(減少)10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75)FCFF(28,532.11)17,311.3737,382.0978,306.9892,441.23非非現現金金性性流流動動資資本本變變化化流動資產14,651.6921,563.0031,127.3238,313.0250,506.3865,147.08流動負債31,800.4328,249.0059,985.1472,866.9492,627.70116,963.16流動資本(17,148.74)(6,686.00)(

56、28,857.83)(34,553.91)(42,121.32)(51,816.07)非非現現金金性性流流動動資資本本變變化化10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75)股股權權資資本本自自由由現現金金流流FCFE凈利17,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30加：折舊20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11加：債務的增加(減少)28,733.0012,000.00(23,249.34)(51,750.66)(35,000.00)減：資本支出5

57、5,283.6656,288.4229,873.002,873.002,873.00減：非現金性流動資本的增加(減少)10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75)FCFE970.9528,318.6213,104.3527,513.8955,591.17一般情景預測債債務務、現現金金和和利利息息（單單位位：萬萬元元）2004A20052006E2007E2008E2009E循循環環貸貸款款利利率率5.50%期初現金余額34,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83當期現金流量經營活動產生的現金流

58、量17,723.0771,573.8067,603.2381,043.1495,863.02投資活動產生的現金流量(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00)計入循環貸款前融資活動產生的現金流量32,696.0615,687.13(44,535.66)(38,377.81)(42,726.39)-最低現金余額36,577.0053,831.4365,656.1686,781.74110,897.69現現金金剩剩余余/(/(缺缺口口）(3,287.41)10,006.49(16,750.66)18,539.7527,809.78循環貸

59、款期初余額7,000.008,000.000.0016,750.660.00循環貸款的增加/(減少)3,287.41(8,000.00)16,750.66(16,750.66)0.00循循環環貸貸款款期期末末余余額額10,287.410.0016,750.660.000.00循循環環貸貸款款利利息息費費用用475.40220.00460.64460.640.00銀銀行行長長期期貸貸款款利利率率6.00%期初余額103,600.00135,933.00155,933.00115,933.0080,933.00當期增加/(減少)32,333.0020,000.00(40,000.00)(35,00

60、0.00)(35,000.00)期期末末余余額額103,600.00135,933.00155,933.00115,933.0080,933.0045,933.00長長期期貸貸款款利利息息費費用用7,185.998,755.988,155.985,905.983,805.98貸貸款款利利息息費費用用合合計計7,661.398,975.988,616.626,366.623,805.98現現金金存存款款利利率率 1.35%期期初初余余額額34,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83期期末末余余額額34,609.4636,577.0055,837.93

61、65,656.1688,570.83138,707.47利利息息收收入入480.51623.80820.091,041.031,534.13一般情景預測現現金金流流貼貼現現估估值值（公公司司的的自自由由現現金金流流FCFF）公公司司名名稱稱華華魯魯恒恒升升代代碼碼600426流通A股17,232.00流通B股總股本25,050.00A股股價9.70B股股價分分析析日日期期2005/08/25匯率假假設設數數值值第二階段(2010-2017)年數8第二階段增長率0.50%長期增長率0.00%應付債券利率0.00%無風險利率Rf5.00%1.26Rm11.00%Ke12.56%稅率19.63%Kd

62、4.80%Ve242,985.00Vd143,933.00WACC9.67%第第一一階階段段2005E2006E2007E2008EFCFF(28,532.11)17,311.3737,382.0978,306.98第第二二階階段段2010E2011E2012E2013EFCFF92,903.4393,367.9593,834.7994,303.97FCFF估估值值現現金金流流折折現現值值（萬萬元元）價價值值百百分分比比第一階段137,074.5917.23%第二階段340,756.9942.82%第三階段（終值）317,940.3939.95%企業價值AEV795,771.97100.00%

63、+非核心資產價值36,577.004.60%少數股東權益0.000.00%凈債務143,933.00-18.09%總股本價值688,415.9786.51%股本（萬股）25,050.00每股價值（元）27.48敏敏感感性性測測試試敏敏感感性性測測試試結結果果長長期期增增長長率率(g)WACC-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%7.50%36.0637.3038.7140.328.00%33.3534.3935.5736.918.50%30.9331.8232.8133.939.00%28.7629.5230.3731.319.50%26.8127.4628.1828.9910.00%2

64、5.0425.6026.2226.9110.50%23.4323.9224.4625.0511.00%21.9622.3922.8523.3611.50%20.6220.9921.3921.8412.00%19.3819.7120.0620.4412.50%18.2418.5318.8419.17指標說明：EV=股權價值+債權價值現金EBITDA EBIT折舊攤銷EBIT 營業利潤財務費用NOPLATEBIT（1所得稅率）EBIT所得稅（只考慮核心業務，扣除非經常性損益）IC（invested capital）股東權益長期借款短期借款應付債券少數股東權益現金短期投資長期投資ROIC NOPLA

65、T/IC100OPFCF EBITDA稅收凈資本性支出營運資本的增加WACC(KeVe)（KdVd）/(VeVd)Kd 債務成本平均債務利率（1稅率）（短期借款短期借款利率長期借款長期借款利率長期應付債券長期應付債券利率）/（長期借款長期應付債券）（1所得稅率）Ve股本價值股價總股本（H股、B股按各自股價匯率轉換為人民幣計算，非流通股按A股計算）Vd債務價值短期借款長期借款應付債券KeRf+(RmRf)營營運運資資本本流動資產流動負債 公公司司自自由由現現金金流流 FCFFEBIT（1-所得稅率）折舊資本支出非現金性流動資本變化 股股權權資資本本自自由由現現金金流流 FCFE稅前利潤（1-所得

66、稅率）折舊資本支出非現金性流動資本變化新增債務債務償還 資資本本支支出出 長期資產總值增加無息長期負債增加長期資產凈值增加折舊與攤銷無息長期負債增加0.00流通H股0.000.00H股股價0.001.00匯率1.062009E92,441.232014E2015E2016E2017E94,775.4995,249.3695,725.6196,204.241.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%42.1744.3446.9049.9753.7338.4440.2042.2544.6847.6035.2036.6538.3240.2742.5832.3733.5834.9536.5438

67、.3929.8830.8932.0333.3434.8427.6728.5229.4830.5631.8025.7026.4227.2328.1429.1723.9224.5425.2325.9926.8622.3222.8523.4424.0924.8220.8621.3221.8322.3923.0119.5419.9420.3720.8521.39IC（invested capital）股東權益長期借款短期借款應付債券少數股東權益現金短期投資長期投資Kd 債務成本平均債務利率（1稅率）（短期借款短期借款利率長期借款長期借款利率長期應付債券長期應付債券利率）/（長期借款長期應付債券）（1所

68、得稅率）Ve股本價值股價總股本（H股、B股按各自股價匯率轉換為人民幣計算，非流通股按A股計算）股股權權資資本本自自由由現現金金流流 FCFE稅前利潤（1-所得稅率）折舊資本支出非現金性流動資本變化新增債務債務償還 資資本本支支出出 長期資產總值增加無息長期負債增加長期資產凈值增加折舊與攤銷無息長期負債增加一般情景預測現現金金流流貼貼現現估估值值（股股權權資資本本自自由由現現金金流流FCFE）分析日期2005/8/25假假設設數數值值第二階段(2010-2017)年數8第二階段增長率0.50%長期增長率0.00%無風險利率Rf5.00%(levered)1.26Rm11.00%Ke12.56%第

69、第一一階階段段2005E2006E2007E2008EFCFE970.9528,318.6213,104.3527,513.89第第二二階階段段2010E2011E2012E2013EFCFE55,869.1256,148.4756,429.2156,711.36FCFE估估值值現現金金流流折折現現值值（萬萬元元）價價值值百百分分比比第一階段86,723.0424.18%第二階段165,044.0746.02%第三階段（終值）106,835.6029.79%股權資本的價值358,602.71100.00%股本（萬股）25,050.00每股價值（元）14.32敏敏感感性性測測試試敏敏感感性性測測

70、試試結結果果長長期期增增長長率率(g)Ke-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%10.50%17.1417.4317.7518.1111.00%16.2616.5216.8017.1011.50%15.4615.6815.9216.1912.00%14.7214.9215.1315.3612.50%14.0414.2114.4014.6013.00%13.4113.5613.7313.9113.50%12.8312.9613.1113.2614.00%12.2912.4112.5412.6714.50%11.7811.8912.0012.1315.00%11.3111.4111.5111

71、.6215.50%10.8710.9611.0511.152009E55,591.172014E2015E2016E2017E56,994.9157,279.8957,566.2957,854.121.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%18.5018.9319.4219.9720.5917.4417.8118.2218.6819.2016.4816.8017.1517.5517.9815.6115.8916.1916.5316.9014.8215.0615.3215.6115.9314.1014.3114.5314.7815.0613.4313.6213.8214.0314.271

72、2.8212.9813.1613.3513.5512.2612.4012.5512.7212.9011.7411.8612.0012.1412.3011.2511.3611.4811.6111.75一般情景預測股股利利貼貼現現估估值值分析日期2005/8/25假假設設數數值值第二階段(2010-2017)年數8第二階段增長率0.50%長期增長率0.00%無風險利率Rf5.00%1.26Rm11.00%Ke12.56%第第一一階階段段2005E2006E2007E2008E股利1,670.002,507.693,286.124,599.22第第二二階階段段2010E2011E2012E2013E

73、股利5,481.815,509.225,536.765,564.45DDM估估值值股股利利現現值值（萬萬元元）價價值值百百分分比比第一階段12,649.4132.17%第二階段16,193.9141.18%第三階段（終值）10,482.5726.66%股利現值39,325.89100.00%股本（萬股）25,050.00每股價值（元）1.57敏敏感感性性測測試試敏敏感感性性測測試試結結果果長長期期增增長長率率(g)Ke-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%10.50%1.851.881.911.9511.00%1.761.791.821.8511.50%1.681.701.731.751

74、2.00%1.611.631.651.6712.50%1.541.561.581.6013.00%1.481.491.511.5313.50%1.421.431.451.4614.00%1.361.381.391.4014.50%1.311.321.341.3515.00%1.271.281.291.3015.50%1.221.231.241.252009E5,454.532014E2015E2016E2017E5,592.275,620.235,648.335,676.571.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%1.982.032.072.132.191.881.911.962.0

75、02.051.781.811.851.891.931.701.721.751.791.821.621.641.671.691.731.541.571.591.611.641.481.501.521.541.561.421.431.451.471.491.361.371.391.411.421.311.321.331.351.361.261.271.281.291.31一般情景預測調調整整性性現現值值估估值值分析日期2005/8/25假假設設數數值值第二階段(2010-2017)年數8第二階段增長率0.50%長期增長率0.00%無風險利率Rf5.00%(levered)1.26Rm11.00%K

76、e(Kelevered)12.56%稅率19.63%Vd/Ve0.59無負債(unlevered)0.85無負債Ke(Keunlevered)10.12%1.1.無無債債務務時時的的公公司司價價值值第第一一階階段段2005E2006E2007E2008EFCFF(28,532.11)17,311.3737,382.0978,306.98第第二二階階段段2010E2011E2012E2013EFCFF92,903.4393,367.9593,834.7994,303.97階階段段現現金金流流折折現現值值（萬萬元元）價價值值百百分分比比第一階段133,925.9117.81%第二階段329,297

77、.1943.78%第三階段（終值）288,926.6138.41%無負債時的公司價值752,149.71100.00%2.2.加加：債債務務的的效效益益預期稅收效益28,250.05破破產產概概率率參參考考（為為美美國國公公司司的的統統計計數數據據，來來源源于于Investment Valuation）3.3.減減：預預期期破破產產成成本本（對對債債務務率率低低的的公公司司可可忽忽略略該該項項）債債券券評評級級財務評級B破產的概率20.00%D破產成本占無債務時公司價值的比例40.00%C預期破產成本60,171.98CCCCC4.4.經經營營性性資資產產B-B經營性資產720,227.78B

78、+BB5.5.總總股股本本價價值值A-A+加：非核心資產36,577.00AA減：債務價值143,933.00AAA減：少數股東權益0.00總股本價值612,871.78財財務務評評級級可可在在Bloomberg中中查查到到，評評級級為為AF，可可參參考考上上表表估估算算對對應應的的破破產產概概率率股本（萬股）25,050.00每股價值（元）24.47敏敏感感性性測測試試敏敏感感性性測測試試結結果果長長期期增增長長率率(g)無負債Ke-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%7.50%34.7836.0237.4339.048.00%32.0733.1234.3035.638.50%29.6

79、630.5531.5432.669.00%27.4928.2529.0930.049.50%25.5426.1926.9127.7110.00%23.7724.3324.9525.6410.50%22.1622.6523.1823.7711.00%20.6921.1221.5822.0911.50%19.3419.7220.1220.5612.00%18.1118.4318.7919.1712.50%16.9617.2517.5617.90指標說明：預預期期稅稅收收效效益益=稅率債務價值（前提：假設利息保持不變）預預期期破破產產成成本本=破產的概率破產成本=破產的概率破產成本占無債務時公司價值

80、的比例無債務時的公司價值經經營營性性資資產產=無債務時的公司價值稅收效益預期破產成本公公司司價價值值=經營性資產非核心資產價值少數股東權益 公公司司自自由由現現金金流流 FCFFFCFF =EBIT（1-所得稅率）折舊資本支出非現金性流動資本變化2009E92,441.232014E2015E2016E2017E94,775.4995,249.3695,725.6196,204.24違違約約率率100.00%80.00%65.00%46.61%30.50%26.36%19.28%12.20%1.41%0.40%0.28%0.01%破破產產概概率率參參考考（為為美美國國公公司司的的統統計計數數據

81、據，來來源源于于Investment Valuation）財財務務評評級級可可在在Bloomberg中中查查到到，評評級級為為AF，可可參參考考上上表表估估算算對對應應的的破破產產概概率率1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%40.9043.0745.6348.7052.4537.1638.9240.9843.4146.3233.9335.3737.0539.0041.3031.1032.3033.6835.2637.1228.6129.6230.7632.0633.5726.4027.2528.2129.2930.5324.4225.1525.9526.8627.8922.652

82、3.2723.9524.7225.5821.0421.5822.1622.8223.5519.5920.0520.5521.1121.7318.2618.6619.1019.5820.11預預期期破破產產成成本本=破產的概率破產成本=破產的概率破產成本占無債務時公司價值的比例無債務時的公司價值一般情景預測超超額額收收益益法法估估值值分析日期2005/8/25超超額額收收益益AE2005E2006E2007E凈利潤17,555.1126,360.9834,543.87Ke12.56%12.56%12.56%上一年度凈資產92,363.00116,216.40147,474.15超超額額收收益益5

83、,954.3211,764.2016,021.11假假設設數數值值第二階段(2010-2017)年數8第二階段增長率0.50%長期增長率0.00%第第二二階階段段2010E2011E2012E2013EAE26,938.2327,072.9227,208.2827,344.32AE估估值值超超額額收收益益折折現現值值（萬萬元元）價價值值百百分分比比第一階段60,256.5231.49%第二階段79,578.7441.59%第三階段（終值）51,512.5626.92%經濟利潤現值191,347.82100.00%加：凈資產92,363.00股權資本價值283,710.82股本（萬股）25,05

84、0.00每股價值（元）11.33敏敏感感性性測測試試敏敏感感性性測測試試結結果果長長期期增增長長率率(g)WACC-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%10.50%12.7212.8613.0113.1911.00%12.2912.4112.5512.6911.50%11.8912.0012.1212.2512.00%11.5311.6211.7311.8412.50%11.1911.2811.3711.4613.00%10.8810.9611.0411.1213.50%10.6010.6610.7310.8114.00%10.3310.3810.4510.5114.50%10.0810

85、.1310.1810.2415.00%9.849.899.949.9915.50%9.629.679.719.76指標說明：超超額額收收益益=凈利潤股東對帳面價值所要求的報酬超超額額收收益益法法總總價價值值=超額收益現值公司帳面價值2008E2009E48,347.1657,338.3012.56%12.56%191,222.09243,105.8624,329.6726,804.212014E2015E2016E2017E27,481.0527,618.4527,756.5427,895.331.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%13.3713.5813.8214.0814.38

86、12.8613.0313.2313.4613.7112.3912.5412.7112.9013.1111.9612.0912.2412.4012.5811.5711.6911.8111.9512.1111.2111.3211.4211.5511.6810.8910.9811.0711.1811.2910.5910.6610.7510.8410.9410.3110.3710.4510.5310.6110.0510.1110.1710.2410.329.819.869.929.9810.05一般情景預測經經濟濟附附加加值值估估值值分析日期2005/8/25經經濟濟附附加加值值EVA2005E200

87、6E2007ENOPLAT16,785.0527,353.7335,572.27WACC9.67%9.67%9.67%投入資本IC199,719.00216,311.47214,501.65經經濟濟附附加加值值(2,534.37)6,429.2714,822.88假假設設數數值值第二階段(2010-2017)年數8第二階段增長率0.50%長期增長率0.00%第第二二階階段段2010E2011E2012E2013EAE44,869.5945,093.9345,319.4045,546.00EVA估估值值經經濟濟附附加加值值折折現現值值（萬萬元元）價價值值百百分分比比第一階段66,774.3717

88、.35%第二階段164,575.4642.76%第三階段（終值）153,555.7239.89%經濟附加值現值384,905.55100.00%加：投入資本199,719.00減：債務成本143,933.00減：少數股東權益0.00股權資本價值440,691.55股本（萬股）25,050.00每股價值（元）17.59敏敏感感性性測測試試敏敏感感性性測測試試結結果果長長期期增增長長率率(g)WACC-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%7.50%21.7122.3122.9923.778.00%20.4120.9221.4822.138.50%19.2519.6820.1620.709.0

89、0%18.2118.5718.9819.449.50%17.2717.5817.9318.3210.00%16.4216.6916.9917.3210.50%15.6415.8816.1416.4211.00%14.9415.1415.3715.6111.50%14.2914.4714.6714.8812.00%13.7013.8614.0314.2112.50%13.1513.2913.4413.60指標說明：經經濟濟附附加加值值=投投入入資資本本（投投入入資資本本回回報報率率加加權權平平均均資資本本成成本本）NOPLAT-WACCIC 經經濟濟附附加加值值法法總總價價值值=經濟附加值現值投

90、入資本債務成本少數股東權益2008E2009E47,389.5959,188.369.67%9.67%183,584.26150,331.3929,630.9344,646.352014E2015E2016E2017E45,773.7346,002.6046,232.6146,463.781.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%24.6725.7126.9528.4330.2522.8723.7224.7125.8827.2921.3122.0122.8223.7624.8719.9520.5321.1921.9622.8518.7519.2419.7920.4221.1517.69

91、18.1018.5619.0819.6816.7417.0917.4817.9218.4115.8816.1816.5216.8917.3015.1115.3715.6615.9716.3214.4214.6414.8815.1515.4513.7813.9714.1814.4214.67一般情景預測公公司司名名稱稱華華魯魯恒恒升升代代碼碼02005102620051026分析日期2005/08/25流通A股9,000.00流通B股總股本25,050.00A股股價6.81B股股價Word模模板板指指標標輸輸出出2003A2004A2005E2006E主營收入（萬元）65,198.8699,34

92、7.56135,222.00199,010.15主營收入增長率44.53%52.38%36.11%47.17%EBITDA（萬元）14,017.8721,717.4241,313.2458,107.81EBITDA增長率126.37%54.93%90.23%40.65%凈利潤（萬元）7,876.0312,613.6717,555.1126,360.98凈利潤增長率70.87%60.15%39.18%50.16%ROE12.37%17.09%19.01%22.68%EPS（元）0.4720.7550.7011.052P/E14.449.029.726.47P/B1.791.541.851.47E

93、V/EBITDA10.208.956.734.66估估值值結結果果匯匯總總估估值值方方法法估估值值結結果果估估值值區區間間FCFF27.4821.9632.37FCFE14.3212.2915.61DDM1.571.361.70APV24.4720.6931.10AE11.3310.3311.96EVA17.5914.9419.952002200320042005EEBIT6,192.4210,595.3716,229.3820,884.00EBITDA6,192.4214,017.8721,717.4241,313.24所得稅率24.97%23.95%17.16%19.63%NOPLAT4,

94、646.448,058.1213,444.6416,785.05IC55,017.3092,994.52149,801.84199,719.00Ve113,727.00113,727.00113,727.00170,590.50Vd21,000.0061,700.00115,200.00143,933.00WACC11.35%9.83%8.66%9.01%EV112,928.99143,043.87194,317.54277,946.50業業績績表表現現2002200320042005E35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 FCFFFCFE

95、DDMAPVAEEVA收入增長率44.53%52.38%36.11%凈利潤增長率70.87%60.15%39.18%EBITDA增長率126.37%54.93%90.23%EBIT增長率71.10%53.17%28.68%主營業務利潤率20.58%20.92%20.77%19.27%EBITDAMargin(%)38.95%22.55%54.62%ROE8.26%12.37%17.09%19.01%ROIC8.45%8.67%8.97%8.40%ROICWACC-2.91%-1.17%0.32%-0.60%價價值值比比率率2002200320042005EP/E24.6714.449.029.

96、72EV/收入2.502.191.962.06EV/EBITDA18.2410.208.956.73EV/EBIT18.2413.5011.9713.31EV/NOPLAT24.3017.7514.4516.56EV/IC2.051.541.301.39P/B2.041.791.541.85DividendYield(%)1.76%1.76%2.20%0.98%每每股股指指標標2002200320042005E報表EPS0.280.470.760.70經常性EPS每股紅利0.120.120.150.07每股經營現金流0.71每股凈資產3.343.814.423.69流流動動性性20022003

97、20042005E凈負債/權益(0.01)0.461.031.16總負債/總資產37.75%60.27%69.05%66.58%流動比率1.342.251.141.60速動比率1.171.970.901.21輸輸出出到到Word模模板板中中的的三三張張表表（輸輸出出2003-2007年年）利利潤潤表表（萬萬元元）200320042005E增增長長率率%主營業務收入65,198.8699,347.56135,222.0036.11%主營業務利潤13,309.8020,088.5925,394.0026.41%其他業務利潤119.3872.7912.00-83.51%營業費用731.761,460

98、.751,902.0030.21%管理費用2,102.052,471.252,620.006.02%財務費用810.47939.56633.89-32.53%營業利潤9,784.9015,289.8220,250.1132.44%投資收益0.000.000.00N/A利潤總額10,355.9515,226.2921,842.1143.45%凈利潤7,876.0312,613.6717,555.1139.18%NOPLAT8,058.1213,444.6416,785.0524.85%資資產產負負債債表表（萬萬元元）200320042005E增增長長率率%流動資產43,478.4049,261.

99、1558,140.0018.02%貨幣資金32,383.1334,609.4636,577.005.68%短期投資0.000.000.00N/A應收帳款2.410.000.00N/A其他應收款204.3492.9446.00-50.51%存貨5,399.4410,226.1214,408.0040.89%長期投資0.000.000.00N/A固定資產116,757.43189,218.01218,240.0015.34%無形資產30.100.000.00N/A總資產160,265.93238,479.16276,380.0015.89%無息負債11,843.1636,400.4328,249.

100、00-22.39%有息負債61,700.00110,600.00143,933.0030.14%少數股東權益0.000.000.00N/A股東權益63,677.6573,811.3092,363.0025.13%凈營運資本24,135.245,860.7221,891.00273.52%投入資本IC92,994.52149,801.84199,719.0033.32%現現金金流流量量表表（萬萬元元）200320042005E增增長長率率%凈利潤7,876.0312,613.6717,555.1139.18%折舊攤銷3,422.505,488.0420,429.24272.25%凈營運資金增加1

101、6,593.96(18,274.52)16,030.28N/A經營活動產生現金流27,202.2522,624.9317,723.07-21.67%投資活動產生現金流(41,256.57)(63,262.20)(51,739.00)N/A融資活動產生現金流42,653.8048,814.0235,983.47-26.28%現金凈增（減）28,599.488,176.751,967.54-75.94%指標說明：EV=股權價值+債權價值現金EBITDA EBIT折舊攤銷EBIT 營業利潤財務費用NOPLATEBIT（1所得稅率）EBIT所得稅（只考慮核心業務，扣除非經常性損益）IC（investe

102、d capital）股東權益長期借款短期借款應付債券少數股東權益現金短期投資長期投資ROIC NOPLAT/IC100OPFCF EBITDA稅收凈資本性支出營運資本的增加WACC(KeVe)（KdVd）/(VeVd)Kd 債務成本平均債務利率（1稅率）（短期借款短期借款利率長期借款長期借款利率長期應付債券長期應付債券利率）/（長期借款長期應付債券）（1所得稅率）Ve股本價值股價總股本（H股、B股按各自股價匯率轉換為人民幣計算，非流通股按A股計算）Vd債務價值短期借款長期借款應付債券KeRf+(RmRf)營營運運資資本本流動資產流動負債 公公司司自自由由現現金金流流 FCFFEBIT（1-所得

103、稅率）折舊資本支出非現金性流動資本變化 股股權權資資本本自自由由現現金金流流 FCFE稅前利潤（1-所得稅率）折舊資本支出非現金性流動資本變化新增債務債務償還0.00流通H股0.000.00H股股價0.002007E242,725.1221.97%70,245.8320.89%34,543.8731.04%23.42%1.0456.521.163.38敏敏感感度度分分析析區區間間貼現率1%，長期增長率1%10.41貼現率1%，長期增長率1%3.32貼現率1%，長期增長率1%0.33貼現率1%，長期增長率1%10.41貼現率1%，長期增長率1%1.63貼現率1%，長期增長率1%5.012006E

104、2007E34,033.5744,259.1058,107.8170,245.8319.63%19.63%27,353.7335,572.27216,311.47214,501.65170,590.50170,590.50155,933.00132,683.668.85%9.16%270,685.57237,618.002006E2007E47.17%21.97%50.16%31.04%40.65%20.89%62.96%30.05%20.86%21.99%26.33%27.77%22.68%23.42%12.65%16.58%3.79%7.42%2006E2007E6.476.521.360

105、.984.663.387.955.379.906.681.251.111.471.161.47%1.46%2006E2007E1.051.050.100.102.862.704.645.892006E2007E0.860.4565.98%59.32%1.451.161.100.882006E增增長長率率%2007E增增長長率率%199,010.1547.17%242,725.1221.97%40,538.7359.64%52,176.1428.71%150.001150.00%200.0033.33%2,799.2347.17%3,414.1121.97%3,855.9347.17%4,702

106、.9321.97%1,805.18184.78%1,249.54-30.78%32,228.3959.15%43,009.5633.45%0.00N/A0.00N/A32,798.3950.16%42,979.5631.04%26,360.9850.16%34,543.8731.04%27,353.7362.96%35,572.2730.05%2006E增增長長率率%2007E增增長長率率%86,965.2549.58%103,969.1819.55%55,837.9352.66%65,656.1617.58%0.00N/A0.00N/A67.70N/A82.5721.97%46.000.00

107、%82.5779.50%20,786.8544.27%24,992.2620.23%0.00N/A0.00N/A247,615.7613.46%251,629.031.62%0.00N/A0.00N/A335,063.0121.23%355,953.216.23%59,985.14112.34%72,866.9421.47%155,933.008.34%132,683.66-14.91%0.00N/A0.00N/A116,216.4025.83%147,474.1526.90%26,980.1023.25%14,351.59-46.81%216,311.478.31%214,501.65-0.

108、84%2006E增增長長率率%2007E增增長長率率%26,360.9850.16%34,543.8731.04%24,074.2417.84%25,986.747.94%5,089.10-68.25%(12,628.52)N/A71,573.80303.85%67,603.23-5.55%(60,000.00)N/A(30,000.00)N/A7,687.13-78.64%(27,785.00)N/A19,260.93878.93%9,818.23-49.03%IC（invested capital）股東權益長期借款短期借款應付債券少數股東權益現金短期投資長期投資Kd 債務成本平均債務利率（

109、1稅率）（短期借款短期借款利率長期借款長期借款利率長期應付債券長期應付債券利率）/（長期借款長期應付債券）（1所得稅率）Ve股本價值股價總股本（H股、B股按各自股價匯率轉換為人民幣計算，非流通股按A股計算）股股權權資資本本自自由由現現金金流流 FCFE稅前利潤（1-所得稅率）折舊資本支出非現金性流動資本變化新增債務債務償還非經常性損益應包括以下項目:處置長期股權投資、固定資產、在建工程、無形資產、其他長期資產產生的損益；越權審批或無正式批準文件的稅收返還、減免；各種形式的政府補貼；計入當期損益的對非金融企業收取的資金占用費；短期投資損益,但經國家有關部門批準設立的有經營資格的金融機構獲得的短期投資損益除外；委托投資損益；扣除公司日常根據企業會計制度規定計提的資產減值準備后的其他各項營業外收入、支出；因不可抗力因素,如遭受自然災害而計提的各項資產減值準備；以前年度已經計提各項減值準備的轉回；債務重組損益；資產置換損益；交易價格顯失公允的交易產生的超過公允價值部分的損益；比較財務報表中會計政策變更對以前期間凈利潤的追溯調整數；中國證監會認定的符合定義規定的其他非經常性損益項目。